The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) announced its 2024 MVP voting results Thursday night. As expected, New York Yankees<\/a> center fielder Aaron Judge<\/a><\/strong> is the AL winner<\/a>, and Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> designated hitter Shohei Ohtani<\/a><\/strong> is the NL winner<\/a>. Both were unanimous.<\/p>\n Every year, the MVP announcements draw discussion and argument. A big point of contention, as usual, comes over the definition of \u201cvaluable,\u201d with some claiming that a player can\u2019t be valuable if he doesn\u2019t get his team to the postseason.<\/p>\n But baseball is a team sport. More specifically, it\u2019s a team sport where, on offense, everyone must have a turn. On defense, everyone on the field must do their part when a ball is put in play. Baseball is not like football, basketball, or soccer, where teams constantly get the ball to their elite players in crunch time. Those sports often see certain players not<\/em> get the ball in those situations as well. On the 1988 Oakland Athletics<\/a>, Jose Canseco<\/a><\/strong> (.307\/.391\/.569, 187-for-610, 34 doubles, 42 homers, 124 RBI, 120 runs scored) could only bat once every nine times. And Mike Gallego<\/a><\/strong> (.209\/.298\/.260, 58-for-277, eight doubles, two homers, 20 RBI, 38 runs scored) had<\/em> to bat once every nine times.<\/p>\n Starting pitchers take part in every defensive play \u2014 even if the role is \u201cthrew the pitch that got hit\u201d \u2014 but they pitch once every five days. Relievers can pitch in more games, but they\u2019re typically in for an inning or two at a time.<\/p>\n The Most Valuable Player award is not a Cy Young Award for hitters \u2014 that\u2019s the Hank Aaron Award. It\u2019s not an award for \u201cwho did the most to win games for his team,\u201d because everyone on the team must play a role in winning. In the first sentence of the instructions to voters<\/a> on the MVP ballot, it says \u201cactual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.\u201d At the end of the first paragraph of the instructions, it specifically says, \u201cThe MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.\u201d The last sentence of the instructions says, \u201cKeep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.\u201d<\/p>\n Remember also that the MVP ballots are submitted electronically by midnight of the last day of the regular season. Therefore, by default, it is a regular-season award. The postseason does not at all matter to this award.<\/p>\n The meaning of \u201cvaluable\u201d has been debated for many years. Here is one that factors in everything described up to this point \u2014 the \u201conce every nine times, once every five days\u201d concept, everyone needing to contribute, it being so difficult to hide liabilities. Which player increased his team\u2019s chances<\/em> to win the most? For decades, it was hard to quantify \u201cvalue.\u201d However, there is a stat many aren\u2019t aware of that does<\/em> quantify on-field value in an objective way \u2014 Win Probability Added (WPA). We\u2019ll try to explain it as briefly as possible.<\/p>\n The basis of WPA is straightforward. Every single base-out situation (which bases are occupied, how many outs there are \u2014 24 possible combinations), along with its half-inning and the score difference, has a win probability (or Win Expectancy) attached to it. We have detailed records of the hundreds of thousands of baseball games in the history of Major League Baseball, so we know what percentage of the time that the offensive and defensive teams go on to win the game. That is Win Probability (WP or WE, for Win Expectancy).<\/p>\n The difference between the WP before the at-bat and after the at-bat is the WPA. For example, say it is the bottom of the first of a scoreless game. When the leadoff hitter comes to bat, his team\u2019s WP is 55%. If he singles, the WP becomes 58%, so his WPA for that play is + .030. The pitcher\u2019s WPA for that play, conversely, is \u2013.030.<\/p>\n Keeping track of WPA can quickly show who was the most valuable player in a game. It also works well for an entire series or an entire postseason. However, going much longer than that brings up a problem. To illustrate, let\u2019s look at Kirk Gibson<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s famous walk-off home run in Game One of the 1988 World Series. Before the 3\u20132 slider from Dennis Eckersley<\/a><\/strong>, the A\u2019s had an 87% WP. The situation was runner on second, two out, visiting team ahead by one. If Gibson made an out, the A\u2019s WP would have become 100%, giving Gibson \u2013.130 WPA. Instead, Gibson homered, changing the A\u2019s WP to 0% and the Dodgers\u2019 WP to 100%. That gave Gibson +.870 WPA. Because that one at-bat had such a wide potential swing in WP, that is a \u201chigh-leverage\u201d situation. The leverage of a situation is measured by Leverage Index (LI).<\/p>\n Long-term, if a certain player continually comes to the plate as a late-game pinch-hitter with the game on the line, his WPA has the potential to be a giant see-saw. If he hits so much as two home runs in that situation, his WPA will skyrocket. To correct for this, we have a stat called Situational Wins. This takes a player\u2019s WPA and divides it by LI.<\/p>\n Here is the National League leaderboard for Situational Wins. Position players and pitchers are combined. The Situational Win number listed for position players is for batting, and for pitchers, it is solely for their pitching. (* = left-handed hitter or pitcher; # = switch-hitter)<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Here is the same for the American League.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Using Situational Wins as the sole basis for MVP, the NL MVP should have been Ohtani and AL MVP should have been Judge. Under the same criteria, the NL finalists should have been Ohtani, Sale, and Ozuna with Judge, Soto, and Witt as the AL finalists.<\/p>\nWhat the Most Valuable Player Truly Is<\/h3>\n
WPA, LI, and Situational Wins<\/h3>\n
Short-term vs. Long-term<\/h4>\n
Situational Wins Leaders and the 2024 MVP Award<\/h3>\n
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\n Rank<\/strong><\/td>\n Name<\/strong><\/td>\n Team<\/strong><\/td>\n Pos<\/strong><\/td>\n Sit Wins<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 1<\/td>\n Shohei Ohtani*<\/td>\n LAD<\/td>\n DH<\/td>\n 7.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2<\/td>\n Chris Sale<\/a><\/strong>*<\/td>\n ATL<\/td>\n SP<\/td>\n 4.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 3<\/td>\n Marcell Ozuna<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n ATL<\/td>\n DH<\/td>\n 3.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 4<\/td>\n Ketel Marte<\/a><\/strong> #<\/td>\n ARI<\/td>\n 2B<\/td>\n 3.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 5<\/td>\n Zack Wheeler<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n PHI<\/td>\n SP<\/td>\n 3.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 6<\/td>\n Paul Skenes<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n PIT<\/td>\n SP<\/td>\n 3.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 7<\/td>\n Joc Pederson<\/a><\/strong>*<\/td>\n ARI<\/td>\n DH<\/td>\n 3.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 8<\/td>\n Hunter Greene<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n CIN<\/td>\n SP<\/td>\n 3.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 9<\/td>\n Francisco Lindor<\/a><\/strong> #<\/td>\n NYM<\/td>\n SS<\/td>\n 2.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 10<\/td>\n Jurickson Profar<\/a><\/strong> #<\/td>\n SDP<\/td>\n OF<\/td>\n 2.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n
\n Rank<\/strong><\/td>\n Name<\/strong><\/td>\n Team<\/strong><\/td>\n Pos<\/strong><\/td>\n Sit Wins<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 1<\/td>\n Aaron Judge<\/td>\n NYY<\/td>\n OF<\/td>\n 9.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2<\/td>\n Juan Soto<\/a><\/strong>*<\/td>\n NYY<\/td>\n OF<\/td>\n 7.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 3<\/td>\n Bobby Witt Jr.<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n KCR<\/td>\n SS<\/td>\n 5.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 4<\/td>\n Yordan Alvarez<\/a><\/strong>*<\/td>\n HOU<\/td>\n DH<\/td>\n 5.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 5<\/td>\n Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n TOR<\/td>\n 1B<\/td>\n 4.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 6<\/td>\n Tarik Skubal<\/a><\/strong>*<\/td>\n DET<\/td>\n SP<\/td>\n 4.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 7<\/td>\n Brent Rooker<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n OAK<\/td>\n DH<\/td>\n 4.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 8<\/td>\n Bryce Miller<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n SEA<\/td>\n SP<\/td>\n 3.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 9<\/td>\n Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez<\/a><\/strong> #<\/td>\n CLE<\/td>\n 3B<\/td>\n 3.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 10<\/td>\n Kyle Tucker<\/a><\/strong>*<\/td>\n HOU<\/td>\n OF<\/td>\n 3.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Distance to Closest Teammate<\/h4>\n