{"id":16842,"date":"2025-11-10T18:25:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T02:25:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/?p=16842"},"modified":"2025-11-10T18:25:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T02:25:34","slug":"starter-trust-score-a-new-statistic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/2025\/11\/10\/starter-trust-score-a-new-statistic\/","title":{"rendered":"Starter Trust Score &#8211; A New Statistic"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"359\" data-end=\"700\">Baseball has never had more stats than it does today. Everything gets measured. Spin rate, extension, vertical break, chase rate, hard-hit percentage, and dozens of new metrics seem to roll out every season. However, despite the numerous numbers and trends available, one thing has always been missing. Now we have Starter Trust Score &#8211; a new statistic to grade managers.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"359\" data-end=\"700\">Here We Go<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"702\" data-end=\"973\">Trust isn\u2019t a Statcast number. It\u2019s not an ERA estimator. It\u2019s not even buried inside a splits page. But anyone who watches a full season knows that trust determines a starter\u2019s leash, their innings, their win probability, and very often, the shape of their entire season.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"975\" data-end=\"1031\">That\u2019s where the new <strong data-start=\"992\" data-end=\"1021\">Starter Trust Score (STS)<\/strong> comes in.<\/p>\n<p><strong data-start=\"1043\" data-end=\"1116\">Starter Trust Score (STS): Measuring Managerial Confidence<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1118\" data-end=\"1404\">STS is a fan-friendly, 0\u2013100 scale metric that reveals how much a manager trusts a pitcher to go deep into games. It does not measure talent alone. Plenty of talented starting pitchers don\u2019t have long leashes. STS looks at the details that never appear on a box score but absolutely shape a season:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1406\" data-end=\"1809\">\n<li data-start=\"1406\" data-end=\"1459\">How often does a pitcher complete five or six innings<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1460\" data-end=\"1522\">How frequently do they make it to the third time through the order<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1523\" data-end=\"1564\">How quickly they work through innings<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1565\" data-end=\"1642\">Whether they\u2019re consistently allowed to pitch in high-leverage situations<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1643\" data-end=\"1722\">How many starts end early due to walks, pitch inefficiency, or poor command<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1723\" data-end=\"1809\">Whether the manager tends to give them rope after trouble, or grabs the hook early<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1811\" data-end=\"1887\">Most modern pitching stats focus on performance. STS focuses on usage.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s built on real game patterns over an entire season. Exit points, pitch counts, inning progression, game state, and managerial decisions that play out over a starter&#8217;s 20-30 starts. It\u2019s the kind of information fans talk about all the time (\u201cWhy is the manager yanking him already?\u201d) but rarely have a way to quantify.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2197\" data-end=\"2303\">For years, fans have had to guess whether a manager \u201ctrusts\u201d a starter. STS finally makes that measurable.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2310\" data-end=\"2334\"><strong data-start=\"2315\" data-end=\"2334\">Why We need a New Way to See How Much a Manager Trusts His Pitchers<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2336\" data-end=\"2420\">Two pitchers might both have a 3.80 ERA, but their team views them very differently.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2422\" data-end=\"2536\">One might consistently work into the seventh inning.<br data-start=\"2474\" data-end=\"2477\" \/>The other might be pulled after 90 pitches, no matter what.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2538\" data-end=\"2677\">One might get the green light to face a lineup a third time.<br data-start=\"2598\" data-end=\"2601\" \/>The other might get the bullpen warming up the moment a runner reaches base.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2679\" data-end=\"2924\">Those differences are enormous over a full season. More innings mean fewer bullpen games, fewer blowouts, more stability, and more opportunities to win. STS captures that manager-pitcher relationship and wraps it into a single, understandable number.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2926\" data-end=\"3112\">And because it\u2019s usage-based, STS can predict breakouts before traditional stats do. A huge jump in workload or extra leash is often a sign that a team believes a pitcher is ready to take the next step in the rotation.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3846\" data-end=\"3884\"><strong data-start=\"3851\" data-end=\"3884\">What an STS Number Looks Like<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3886\" data-end=\"3975\"><strong data-start=\"3886\" data-end=\"3896\">80\u2013100<\/strong><br data-start=\"3896\" data-end=\"3899\" \/>Aces, workhorses, or pitchers with long leashes and consistent deep outings.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3977\" data-end=\"4075\"><strong data-start=\"3977\" data-end=\"3986\">60\u201379<\/strong><br data-start=\"3986\" data-end=\"3989\" \/>Strong top of the rotation arms who are trusted most nights but still get protected at times.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4077\" data-end=\"4165\"><strong data-start=\"4077\" data-end=\"4086\">40\u201359<\/strong><br data-start=\"4086\" data-end=\"4089\" \/>Volatile pitchers, rookies, or guys who force the bullpen into action early.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4167\" data-end=\"4267\"><strong data-start=\"4167\" data-end=\"4175\">0\u201339<\/strong><br data-start=\"4175\" data-end=\"4178\" \/>Pitchers with short leashes, high inefficiency, or usage patterns that scream \u201cno trust.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4269\" data-end=\"4346\">These bands are based on actual managerial tendencies, not performance alone.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"4269\" data-end=\"4346\">How the Starter Trust Score Formula Works<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"701\" data-end=\"747\"><strong data-start=\"706\" data-end=\"747\">1. Each Category Becomes a Percentile<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"748\" data-end=\"916\">Instead of using raw numbers (like \u201c14 quality starts\u201d or \u201c8 outings of 100+ pitches\u201d), STS converts every stat into a <strong data-start=\"867\" data-end=\"886\">percentile rank<\/strong> compared to all starters.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"918\" data-end=\"934\">Why percentiles?<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"936\" data-end=\"1088\">\n<li data-start=\"936\" data-end=\"974\">They eliminate noise from outliers<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"975\" data-end=\"1023\">They make each category speak a common language<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1024\" data-end=\"1088\">They let you blend innings-based and rate-based stats fairly<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1090\" data-end=\"1260\">A pitcher who\u2019s in the 75th percentile, for example, for \u201cstarts going six or more innings\u201d gets a 75 in that category. A pitcher who\u2019s in the 40th percentile for \u201cwalk efficiency\u201d gets a 40.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1262\" data-end=\"1308\">Every category becomes a 0\u2013100 scale item.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1315\" data-end=\"1379\"><strong data-start=\"1320\" data-end=\"1379\">2. Percentiles Fit Into Three Pillars (Weighted Groups)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1381\" data-end=\"1513\">Each pillar contributes to the final score, but they don\u2019t contribute equally.<br data-start=\"1459\" data-end=\"1462\" \/>Managers don\u2019t trust starters for the same reasons.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1515\" data-end=\"1546\">Here\u2019s the weighting structure:<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1548\" data-end=\"1587\"><strong data-start=\"1552\" data-end=\"1587\">Durability &amp; Availability \u2014 40%<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1588\" data-end=\"1609\">This pillar includes:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1610\" data-end=\"1744\">\n<li data-start=\"1610\" data-end=\"1626\">Total starts<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1627\" data-end=\"1648\">Six-inning starts<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1649\" data-end=\"1679\">Low pitch-count efficiency<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1680\" data-end=\"1719\">High pitch-count thresholds reached<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1720\" data-end=\"1744\">Early-game stability<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1746\" data-end=\"1857\">Managers trust pitchers who stay available and eat innings. That\u2019s why this group gets the biggest piece.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1864\" data-end=\"1898\"><strong data-start=\"1868\" data-end=\"1898\">Efficiency &amp; Command \u2014 35%<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1899\" data-end=\"1920\">This pillar includes:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1921\" data-end=\"2009\">\n<li data-start=\"1921\" data-end=\"1934\">Walk rate<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1935\" data-end=\"1957\">Pitches per inning<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1958\" data-end=\"1985\">First-pitch strike rate<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1986\" data-end=\"2009\">Blow-up inning rate (three or more runs in an inning that impacts the games outcome)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2011\" data-end=\"2171\">These numbers explain why a pitcher does or does not get a long leash. A pitcher who walks too many or consistently works with inflated pitch counts is very rarely allowed to get into the late innings.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2178\" data-end=\"2214\"><strong data-start=\"2182\" data-end=\"2214\">Usage &amp; Leverage Trust \u2014 25%<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2215\" data-end=\"2236\">This pillar includes:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2237\" data-end=\"2415\">\n<li data-start=\"2237\" data-end=\"2274\">Times facing the order a third time<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2275\" data-end=\"2310\">Starts allowed to reach the seventh inning<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2311\" data-end=\"2355\">Leverage index while still on the mound late (Close games in late innings and higher leverage than in earlier innings)<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2356\" data-end=\"2385\">Removal from game timing after traffic on the bases (Does the pitcher get pulled at the first sign of trouble?)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2417\" data-end=\"2510\">This group is \u201cmanager behavior.\u201d It can swing scores dramatically for borderline pitchers.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2517\" data-end=\"2571\"><strong data-start=\"2522\" data-end=\"2571\">3. Each pillar produces its own average score<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2573\" data-end=\"2619\">After calculating percentiles inside a pillar:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2621\" data-end=\"2780\">\n<li data-start=\"2621\" data-end=\"2672\">The durability categories get averaged together<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2673\" data-end=\"2724\">The efficiency categories get averaged together<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2725\" data-end=\"2780\">The leverage-trust categories get averaged together<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2782\" data-end=\"2832\">So each pitcher ends up with three sub-scores:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2834\" data-end=\"2900\">\n<li data-start=\"2834\" data-end=\"2854\">Durability Score<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2855\" data-end=\"2875\">Efficiency Score<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2876\" data-end=\"2900\">Leverage Trust Score<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2902\" data-end=\"2935\">These are still on a 0\u2013100 scale.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2942\" data-end=\"3012\"><strong data-start=\"2947\" data-end=\"3012\">4. STS Blends the Three Sub-Scores Using the Weighting System<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3014\" data-end=\"3047\">This final calculation is simple:<\/p>\n<div class=\"contain-inline-size rounded-2xl relative bg-token-sidebar-surface-primary\">\n<div class=\"sticky top-9\">\n<div class=\"absolute end-0 bottom-0 flex h-9 items-center pe-2\">\n<div class=\"bg-token-bg-elevated-secondary text-token-text-secondary flex items-center gap-4 rounded-sm px-2 font-sans text-xs\"><code class=\"whitespace-pre!\">STS = (Durability Score \u00d7 0.40)<\/code><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"overflow-y-auto p-4\" dir=\"ltr\"><code class=\"whitespace-pre!\"><br \/>\n<span class=\"hljs-bullet\">    +<\/span> (Efficiency Score \u00d7 0.35)<br \/>\n<span class=\"hljs-bullet\">    +<\/span> (Leverage Trust Score \u00d7 0.25)<br \/>\n<\/code><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-start=\"3158\" data-end=\"3210\">The result is a clean <strong data-start=\"3180\" data-end=\"3209\">0\u2013100 Starter Trust Score<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3212\" data-end=\"3304\">That\u2019s your final number. A complete report card of the manager\u2013pitcher trust relationship.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3311\" data-end=\"3343\"><strong data-start=\"3316\" data-end=\"3343\">Example (Plain English)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3344\" data-end=\"3360\">If a pitcher is:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3361\" data-end=\"3476\">\n<li data-start=\"3361\" data-end=\"3403\">Above average at going deep into games<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3404\" data-end=\"3445\">Excellent with command and efficiency<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3446\" data-end=\"3476\">Average in late-game trust<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3478\" data-end=\"3502\">Their STS may look like:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3504\" data-end=\"3582\">\n<li data-start=\"3504\" data-end=\"3528\">Durability Score: 82<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3529\" data-end=\"3553\">Efficiency Score: 76<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3554\" data-end=\"3582\">Leverage Trust Score: 55<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3584\" data-end=\"3594\">Final STS:<\/p>\n<div class=\"contain-inline-size rounded-2xl relative bg-token-sidebar-surface-primary\">\n<div class=\"sticky top-9\">\n<div class=\"absolute end-0 bottom-0 flex h-9 items-center pe-2\">\n<div class=\"bg-token-bg-elevated-secondary text-token-text-secondary flex items-center gap-4 rounded-sm px-2 font-sans text-xs\"><code class=\"whitespace-pre!\">(82 \u00d7 0.40) + (76 \u00d7 0.35) + (55 \u00d7 0.25)<\/code><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"overflow-y-auto p-4\" dir=\"ltr\"><code class=\"whitespace-pre!\"><br \/>\n= 32.8 + 26.6 + 13.75<br \/>\n= 73.15 \u2192 STS of 73<br \/>\n<\/code><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-start=\"3686\" data-end=\"3759\">That pitcher falls in the \u201ctrusted mid-rotation or borderline ace\u201d range.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3766\" data-end=\"3798\"><strong data-start=\"3771\" data-end=\"3798\">Why This System Works<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul data-start=\"3800\" data-end=\"4056\">\n<li data-start=\"3800\" data-end=\"3827\">It respects the sample size because it uses league-wide percentiles<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3828\" data-end=\"3875\">It smooths out weird single-month stretches<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3876\" data-end=\"3932\">It rewards pitchers who actually get deep into games<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3933\" data-end=\"3988\">It isolates manager decisions from pure performance<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3989\" data-end=\"4056\">It produces stable year-to-year scores<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4058\" data-end=\"4079\">And most importantly:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4081\" data-end=\"4191\">STS finally gives fans a way to see the trust patterns we talk about all the time, but could never measure.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3766\" data-end=\"3798\"><strong data-start=\"3771\" data-end=\"3798\">Real World Examples<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>So, let&#8217;s use a few real MLB pitchers for the 2025 season who had at least 15 starts.\u00a0 Using the formula above, the actual STS grades and their corresponding positions on the Starter Trust Scale are as follows:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/skubata01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=sportrelay.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-10_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Tarik Skuba<\/strong>l<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/2025\/10\/08\/tigers-mariners-20251008\/\">Detroit Tigers<\/a> &#8211;\u00a0 STS = 97.7 (Ace, workhorse, or pitchers with long leash and consistent deep outings)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/r\/ryanjo04.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=sportrelay.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-06_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Joe Ryan<\/strong><\/a> &#8211;\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/2025\/09\/25\/rangers-twins-20250925\/\">Minnesota Twins<\/a> &#8211; STS = 64.9 (Strong top of the rotation arms who are trusted most nights but still get protected at times)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/g\/galleza01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=sportrelay.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-06_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Zac Gallen<\/strong><\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/2025\/10\/05\/diamondbacks-top-prospects-for-2026\/\">Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a> &#8211; STS = 49.6 (Volatile pitchers, rookies, or guys who force the bullpen into action early)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/f\/freelky01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=sportrelay.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-06_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Kyle Freeland<\/strong><\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/2025\/05\/11\/bud-black-mike-redmond-rockies-fired\/\">Colorado Rockies<\/a> &#8211; STS = 50.5 (Volatile pitchers, rookies, or guys who force the bullpen into action early)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/i\/imanash01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=sportrelay.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-06_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Shota Imanaga<\/strong><\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/2025\/09\/13\/anthony-rizzo-honored-by-cubs-and-chicago\/\">Chicago Cubs<\/a> &#8211; STS = 74.9 (Strong top of the rotation arms who are trusted most nights but still get protected at times)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/ceasedy01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=sportrelay.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-11-10_br\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Dylan Cease<\/strong><\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/2025\/11\/06\/padres-hire-craig-stammen-as-new-manager\/\">San Diego Padres<\/a> &#8211; STS = 23.7 (Pitchers with short leashes, high inefficiency, or usage patterns that scream \u201cno trust.\u201d)<\/p>\n<p>In conclusion, STS is a great stat to see the trust a manager has for his starting pitchers. When the chips are down, STS gives you an idea if the manager is going to pull his pitcher or let him fight through the trouble.\u00a0 Will the manager go to the bullpen or trust his starter? Here&#8217;s a screenshot of the top twelve in MLB for 2025:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-16888\" src=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/STS-300x181.jpg\" alt=\"Starter Trust Score\" width=\"781\" height=\"471\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/STS-300x181.jpg 300w, https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/STS-1024x617.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/STS-768x463.jpg 768w, https:\/\/sportrelay.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/STS.jpg 1298w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 781px) 100vw, 781px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Baseball has never had more stats than it does today. Everything gets measured. Spin rate, extension, vertical break, chase rate, hard-hit percentage, and dozens of new metrics seem to roll out every season. However, despite the numerous numbers and trends available, one thing has always been missing. Now we have Starter Trust Score &#8211; a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":16888,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[880,372,637,1648,1468,2177,292,602],"class_list":["post-16842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-dylan-cease","tag-joe-ryan","tag-kyle-freeland","tag-major-league-baseball","tag-shota-imanaga","tag-starter-trust-score","tag-tarik-skubal","tag-zac-gallen","pmpro-has-access","eq-blocks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Starter Trust Score - A New Statistic - Sport Relay<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Grab your favorite starting pitchers. 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