Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> first baseman Freddie Freeman<\/a><\/strong> notched his 2000th career hit with an eighth-inning double Sunday night against the Houston Astros<\/a>. Naturally, this raises the question of whether he\u2019ll reach the next major milestone \u2014 the 3000 Hit Club. The most recent addition to this elite group of 33 was Miguel Cabrera<\/a><\/strong>, who cracked number 3000 on April 23, 2022, with a single against the Colorado Rockies<\/a>. The naysaying \u201cwe\u2019ll never see another\u201d chirpers started their usual song as soon as Cabrera touched first base that afternoon, but a thoughtful look at the career numbers of active major leaguers tells a different story. There are seven, including Freeman, with a realistic chance to do it, and two more that we\u2019ve classified as \u201cmaybe.\u201d<\/p>\n When creating this list, we only included players in their tenth year or later. Anyone shy of 10 years went in the \u201ctoo early to tell\u201d category. Secondly, we\u2019re obviously assuming everyone stays healthy, so please leave that cop-out of an argument at the door.<\/p>\n Now comes the fun. If a player plays 20 seasons, then he\u2019ll get exactly 3000 hits by averaging 150 per year. So what we did for this list was project how many hits these players will have at the end of the 2023 season, based on his current pace. (Exact method is here.<\/a>) Then we answered the following question: \u201cIf _________ averages 150 hits a year for the rest of his career, in what year will he reach 3000?\u201d Finally, we looked at how old he will be in that season. If his age was 42 or younger, we classified him as \u201crealistic.\u201d Two players came in at 43, so we called them \u201cmaybes.\u201d Age 44 or older was too remote for us to consider. Our reason: every member of the club except Cap Anson<\/a><\/strong> (45) and Ty Cobb<\/a><\/strong> (34) was in his late 30s or early 40s when he joined. Only Anson was older than 42, even.<\/p>\n We don\u2019t want to get bogged down, so let\u2019s get to the list. \u201cCurrent hit totals\u201d include everything up to the end of play Sunday night, June 25, 2023.<\/p>\n Freeman, with 2000 hits, is sixth on the active career hit list. Cabrera, with 3119, is the active leader. The four players between Cabrera and Freeman are Joey Votto<\/a><\/strong> (2098), Nelson Cruz<\/a><\/strong> (2049), Elvis Andrus<\/a><\/strong> (2036), and Andrew McCutchen<\/a><\/strong> (2009). Votto will turn 40 on September 10 and Cruz will turn 43 on July 1, so neither will even come close to 3000. McCutchen, who will turn 37 on October 10, is also too old. (Note: We worked it out, and at 150 hits per year, he\u2019d reach 3000 at the age of 44.)<\/em> Andrus, who turns 35 on August 26, has only played in 70% of his team\u2019s games this season and is projected to end up with 79 hits. This could easily be his last season, but even if it isn\u2019t, we can effectively rule him out.<\/p>\n That gives us seven who have a realistic chance to reach 3000 for their careers, given the parameters we set. Here they are, listed in chronological order by the year they\u2019ll hit number 3000 at the aforementioned pace.<\/p>\n Freeman currently has exactly 2000 hits. At his current pace, he will end the season at around 2103 career hits. Averaging 150 a year for the rest of his career will have him notching number 3000 in late 2029, when he\u2019ll be 39 or, if on or after September 12, 40.<\/p>\n The naysayers for Altuve are quite likely blinded by their resentment from 2017. Altuve was the fastest Astro to 1000 hits, beating out career Astro and 3000 Hit Club member Craig Biggio<\/a><\/strong>. He currently has 1961 hits. We project that he will end the season with around 2023 career hits. This will have him, if he averages 150 hits per year for the rest of his career, reaching the milestone midway through 2030. If it is on or after May 6, he\u2019ll be 40.<\/p>\n We had to take some extra steps with Machado, given the games he\u2019s missed in 2023 with injury. He currently has 1659 career hits, and we project that he will finish the season with 1737. A 150-hits-per-year pace from that point forward will have him reach 3000 midway through the 2032 season. Since his birthday is July 6, he\u2019ll either be 39 or 40 at that point.<\/p>\n Due to the injuries he\u2019s suffered over the years, the last year Mike Trout had 150 or more hits in a season was 2016, so his inclusion on this list might surprise many. (Note: He missed the mark by three in 2018, when he played in 140 games.)<\/em> But he currently has 1614 career hits, and we project that he\u2019ll end this season with 1687. That will have him reaching 3000 in the 2032 season. On August 7 of that year, he will turn 41.<\/p>\n While known for his otherworldly defense, Arenado is also a dependable hitter. From his third season to the present, the only season where he didn\u2019t break 150 hits was 2020. He is on pace to break 150 again this season. He currently has 1598 on his career, and we project him to end the season with around 1683. A 150-per-year pace will have him reaching 3000 in 2032, when he will turn 41 on April 16.<\/p>\n Harper was another one that took some extra steps to project, given the injury that kept him shelved until May 2. He currently has 1427 career hits, and we project that he\u2019ll end the season with around 1513. At a pace of 150 per year, he would reach 3000 hits toward the end of the 2033 season, when he will be 40.<\/p>\n Betts currently has 1381 hits in his career. We project him to finish the season with 1463. The 150-hits-per-year pace will have him reaching 3000 hits in the 2034 season, when he will be 41.<\/p>\n Goldschmidt will likely be the next player to reach 2000 career hits. He currently has 1834 and is on pace to end the season with 1925. Cracking 150 hits per year for the rest of his career would bring him to 3000 in the first half of 2031, when he will be 43.<\/p>\n LeMahieu currently has 1630 career hits. We project that he will end the season with 1688. Smacking 150 hits per year for the rest of his career will have him reaching 3000 in 2032. He will turn 44 on July 13 of that season.<\/p>\n Of these two, Goldschmidt is more likely to reach 3000, given both his pace to get 175 hits this season and the fact that he plays first base, which isn\u2019t as hard on the body as the other eight defensive positions. Even still, playing until he\u2019s 43, while not unheard of, isn\u2019t common. With LeMahieu, if he ends the season with 1688 career hits, that would give him 112 on the season. He ended 2022 with 122, so he would have to reverse this trend to have any chance at all.<\/p>\n We obviously can\u2019t predict the future with certainty, but it is still exciting to think about, especially if even half of these players end up reaching the Promised Land. Imagine if Trout, Machado, and Arenado reach all the projections and paces listed here. We could have three players join the club within a few weeks of each other, something that has never happened. In fact, we\u2019ve only had two players join the club in the same season five times.<\/p>\n No matter what, claims that no one will ever get 3000 hits again are silly. We have seven players with a realistic chance to get there and two more with an outside chance. Not only that, but we don\u2019t know how many players with fewer than ten years of experience will get to the \u201crealistic\u201d level yet. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.<\/p>\n To project a player\u2019s total for 2023, we figured out what percentage of his team\u2019s games that he\u2019s played in. For example, Betts has played in 74 of the Dodgers\u2019 77 games, which is around 96%. Multiplying that percentage by 162 gives us his projected game total \u2014 155. We also divided his at-bats by his games played to figure out how many at-bats he gets per game. Multiplying that answer by his projected games gave us an estimate of how many at-bats he will get this season. Then we multiplied that answer by his current batting average for this season to estimate how many hits he will have on the year. Adding this number to his career hits through the end of 2022 gave us a year-end career hits estimate.<\/p>\n With the players who have been injured \u2014 Altuve, Machado, and Harper \u2014 we figured out how many games each played out of how many each was eligible to play in. For example, Harper missed the first 30 games of the season. Since returning, he has played in 45 out of a possible 47 games \u2014 roughly 95.7%. Applying that percentage to 132 games (162 minus 30) gives us his projected number of 126. Then we took the same steps as we took with everyone else.<\/p>\n As our final step, we subtracted the player\u2019s projected year-end career hits total from 3000 to figure out how many more hits he needs. Dividing that answer by 150 gave us how many years it would take. For example, we projected that Freeman will end the season with 2103 career hits, 897 shy of 3000. Dividing 897 by 150 gives us 5.98. Adding that to 2023 gives us 2028.98, meaning that he\u2019ll reach 3000 near the end of the 2029 season. (Return to article.<\/a>)<\/p>\n For any further questions on projections or methods, reach the author at evan@sportrelay.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\nThe Method<\/h3>\n
Realistic Future Members of the 3000 Hit Club<\/h3>\n
Freddie Freeman<\/h4>\n
Jose Altuve<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n
Manny Machado<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n
Mike Trout<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n
Nolan Arenado<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n
Bryce Harper<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n
Mookie Betts<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n
Maybes \u2014 Paul Goldschmidt<\/a><\/strong> and DJ LeMahieu<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Looking Ahead<\/h3>\n
Calculation Methods<\/h3>\n
Main Photo:<\/h4>\n