2023 San Diego Padres Season Preview
It is quite a time to be a San Diego Padres fan in 2023. Ownership, seeing their window of opportunity, spent big once again in the offseason, signing prime free agent Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract. In spring training, they locked up Manny Machado for the next 11 seasons with a hefty extension. The batting lineup is loaded. Their pitching staff has few holes. The Bogeymen in Blue 120 miles to the north-northwest seem vulnerable. And the Padres, who slayed the Los Angeles Dodgers dragon in the 2022 NLDS en route to only their third-ever NLCS appearance, are primed to pounce.
Injured Players
Seven Padres open the year on the injured list, with the biggest name being right-handed starter Joe Musgrove. However, according to A.J. Cassavell of MLB.com, Musgrove’s fractured left big toe should be healed up enough for him to play by mid-April. Also of note: Fernando Tatis Jr. serving a PED suspension, is eligible to return April 20. When he does so, he will play right field.
Catchers
Austin Nola will be the primary catcher with Luis Campusano as the backup.
2022 Stats
Nola — 110 G,397 PA, .251 (87-for-347)/.321/.329, 40 R, 15 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS, 34 BB, 60 SO, .290 wOBA, -6.4 wRAA, -6 DRS, 2.0 WAR.
Campusano — 16 G, 50 PA, .250 (12-for-48)/.260/.333, 4 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 1 BB, 11 SO, .257 wOBA, -2.1 wRAA, -1 DRS, -0.2 WAR.
Designated Hitters
Grizzled veterans Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz will platoon as the designated hitters. Carpenter is a left-handed hitter, while Cruz bats right-handed.
2022 Stats
Carpenter — 47 G, 154 PA, .305 (39-for-128)/.412/.727, 28 R, 9 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR, 37 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 19 BB, 35 SO, .269 wOBA, -9.4 wRAA, 0 DRS, 2.4 WAR.
Cruz — 124 G, 507 PA, .234 (105-for-448)/.313/.337, 50 R, 16 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB, 0 CS, 49 BB, 119 SO, .292 wOBA, -7.3 wRAA, — DRS, 0.1 WAR.
Infielders
The infield is a star-studded quartet, with the lowest WAR of the starters being 4.1. Jake Cronenworth will be the first baseman. Ha-Seong Kim, an excellent defender, will play second. Free-agent signee Xander Bogaerts, who spent 2022 with the Boston Red Sox, will be the shortstop. Machado, for the fifth season in a row, will be the third baseman. In reserve, the Padres have veteran Rougned Odor, a free-agent signee who spent 2022 with the Baltimore Orioles.
2022 Stats
Cronenworth — 158 G, 684 PA, .239 (140-for-587)/.332/.390, 88 R, 30 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 88 RBI, 3 SB, 0 CS, 70 BB, 131 SO, .318 wOBA, 4.6 wRAA, -2 DRS, 4.1 WAR.
Kim — 150 G, 582 PA, .251 (130-for-517)/.325/.383, 58 R, 29 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS, 51 BB, 100 SO, .313 wOBA, 1.5 wRAA, 12 DRS, 5.0 WAR.
Bogaerts — 150 G, 631 PA, .307 (171-for-557)/.377/.456, 84 R, 38 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR, 73 RBI, 8 SB, 2 CS, 57 BB, 118 SO, .363 wOBA, 26.7 wRAA, 5 DRS, 5.9 WAR.
Machado — 150 G, 644 PA, .298 (172-for-578)/.366/.531, 100 R, 37 2B, 1 3B, 32 HR, 102 RBI, 9 SB, 1 CS, 63 BB, 133 SO, .382 wOBA, 36.8 wRAA, -3 DRS, 6.8 WAR.
Odor — 135 G, 472 PA, .207 (88-for-426)/.275/.357, 49 R, 19 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 6 SB, 1 CS, 32 BB, 109 SO, .278 wOBA, -11.8 wRAA, -9 DRS, -0.4 WAR.
Outfielders
Young and talented Juan Soto, acquired in a mid-season trade with the Washington Nationals in 2022, returns to play left field. Trent Grisham once again will be in center field. Until Tatis returns, David Dahl — who did not play in the majors in 2022 — will be in right. Jose Azocar will be the reserve.
2022 Stats
Soto — 153 G, 664 PA, .242 (127-for-524)/.401/.452, 93 R, 25 2B, 2 3B, 27 HR, 62 RBI, 6 SB, 2 CS, 135 BB, 96 SO, .376 wOBA, 34.9 wRAA, -2 DRS, 5.6 WAR.
Grisham — 152 G, 524 PA, .184 (83-for-451)/.284/.341, 58 R, 16 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 7 SB, 1 CS, 57 BB, 150 SO, .280 wOBA, -12.2 wRAA, 8 DRS, 2.6 WAR.
Dahl did not play in the majors in 2022.
Azocar — 98 G, 216 PA, .257 (52-for-202)/.298/.332, 24 R, 9 2B, 3 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 5 SB, 6 CS, 12 BB, 44 SO, .278 wOBA, -5.4 wRAA, 3 DRS, 0.1 WAR.
Rotation
Yu Darvish returns as the ace of the staff, but he will be pushed to back of rotation due to his WBC schedule. Left-hander Blake Snell will be the number two, followed by Nick Martinez as the number three. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo will take the last two spots. When Musgrove returns, signs point to the Padres having a six-man rotation.
2022 Stats
Darvish — 16–8, 3.10 ERA, 80 ERA-minus, 30 GS, 194 2/3 IP, 197 K (25.6%), 37 BB (4.8%), 20.8% K–BB%, 0.950 WHIP, 83% QS%, 0 Wchp, 4 Ltuf, 5 WLst, 0 LSv, 6 2/3 IP/GS, 4.0 RS/9, 4.4 WAR.
Snell — 8–10, 3.38 ERA, 87 ERA-minus, 24 GS, 128 IP, 171 K (32.0%), 51 BB (9.5%), 22.4% K–BB%, 1.203 WHIP, 46% QS%, 1 Wchp, 2 Ltuf, 1 WLst, 4 LSv, 5 1/3 IP/GS, 3.4 RS/9, 2.0 WAR.
Martinez — 4–4, 3.47 ERA, 90 ERA-minus, 10 GS, 106 1/3 IP, 95 K (21.2%), 41 BB (9.2%), 12.1% K–BB%, 1.288 WHIP, 20% QS%, 1 Wchp, 1 Ltuf, 1 WLst, 3 LSv, 5 1/3 IP/GS, 2.8 RS/9, 1.1 WAR.
Wacha — 11–2, 3.32 ERA, 81 ERA-minus, 23 GS, 127 1/3 IP, 104 K (20.2%), 31 BB (6.0%), 14.2% K–BB%, 1.115 WHIP, 39% QS%, 5 Wchp, 0 Ltuf, 2 WLst, 3 LSv, 5 2/3 IP/GS, 5.5 RS/9, 3.3 WAR.
Lugo — 3–2, 3.60 ERA, 95 ERA-minus, 0 GS, 65 IP, 69 K (25.4%), 18 BB (6.6%), 18.8% K–BB%, 1.169 WHIP, 0.7 WAR.
Relief Corps
Josh Hader returns as the closer. The lefty’s ERA was deceptively high due to five nightmarish meltdowns in July and August, right around and shortly after the birth of his child. He started 2022 on fire, not giving up a run until his 20th appearance, which came on June 7. By the postseason, he had returned to his early-season form and was once again pitching at an elite level.
Getting to Hader will be a bigger question. Luis Garcia and Steven Wilson are dependable setup options, with both having decent 2022 campaigns. Other righties in the relief corps include Nabil Crismatt, Domingo Tapia, and Brent Honeywell Jr. The lefties are middle-man Tim Hill and long-man Ryan Weathers. Hill had a strong 2022 campaign, while Weathers only made one appearance. That was a start where he allowed four runs on six hits, walking four while striking out three in 3 2/3 innings.
2022 Stats
Hader — 5.22 ERA, 132 ERA-minus, 56 GR, 43 ScOtg, 76.8% ScOtg%, 50 IP, 81 K (37.0%), 21 BB (9.6%), 27.4% K–BB%, 2-of-10 Inherited Runners Scored (20%), 36-for-40 Saves, 32–5 Goose Eggs (GE) – Broken Eggs (BE) (6.4 GE/BE), 1.280 WHIP, and -1.0 WAR.
Garcia — 3.39 ERA, 88 ERA-minus, 64 GR, 47 ScOtg, 73.4% ScOtg%, 61 IP, 68 K (26.3%), 17 BB (6.6%), 19.7% K–BB%, 8-of-21 IRS (38%), 3-for-4 Saves, 26–7 GE–BE (3.7 GE/BE), 1.213 WHIP, and 0.2 WAR.
Wilson — 3.06 ERA, 79 ERA-minus, 49 GR, 35 ScOtg, 71.4% ScOtg%, 53 IP, 53 K (24.8%), 20 BB (9.3%), 15.4% K–BB%, 13-of-24 IRS (54%), 1-for-3 Saves, 6–1 GE–BE (6.0 GE/BE), 1.057 WHIP, and 0.8 WAR.
Crismatt — 2.94 ERA, 76 ERA-minus, 49 GR, 33 ScOtg, 67.3% ScOtg%, 67 1/3 IP, 65 K (23.2%), 22 BB (7.9%), 15.4% K–BB%, 7-of-12 IRS (58%), 0-for-4 Saves, 10–4 GE–BE (2.5 GE/BE), 1.173 WHIP, and 0.5 WAR.
Tapia — 8.47 ERA, 230 ERA-minus, 11 GR, 0 ScOtg, 3.0% ScOtg%, 17 IP, 12 K (13.3%), 14 BB (15.6%), -2.2% K–BB%, 3-of-5 IRS (60%), 0-for-0 Saves, 0–0 GE–BE, 2.294 WHIP, and -0.4 WAR.
Honeywell did not play in the majors in 2022.
Hill — 3.56 ERA, 92 ERA-minus, 55 GR, 45 ScOtg, 81.8% ScOtg%, 48 IP, 25 K (12.6%), 14 BB (7.0%), 5.5% K–BB%, 8-of-29 IRS (28%), 0-for-0 Saves, 7–0 GE–BE (INF GE/BE), 1.229 WHIP, and 0.3 WAR.
Weathers did not pitch in relief in 2022.
Outlook
This 2023 San Diego Padres lineup is downright scary. Overall, it is among the most talented in franchise history. San Diego has not had a Big Four championship since the now-departed Chargers won the American Football League (AFL) Championship in 1963. With the Padres being the only Big Four team left in town, they are the long-suffering fans’ only hope.
The batting lineup should fill the stat sheet. The top three members of the starting rotation — Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove — should give opponents grief. If Wacha can pitch the way he did with the Red Sox in 2022, that should also serve the Padres well. The question marks lie in their middle relief. If the starters can last longer per outing, that will put less of a burden on the middle relievers, which will work in the Padres’ favor. At any rate, anything but a playoff berth should be considered a failed campaign — welcome news for Padre fans.
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