Diamondbacks Report: Drop Two of Three to Red Sox; Three with Rockies Next

• May 29, 2023

Diamondbacks Report: One of Three to Red Sox, Rockies Next

PHOENIX, May 29 — The Arizona Diamondbacks (30–23), second place in the NL West and 1 1/2 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (32–22) after dropping two of three to the Boston Red Sox (28–25), continue a ten-game homestand Monday. For four days, the Colorado Rockies (24–30) will be in town. The Rockies are fifth in the NL West, eight games behind the Dodgers. This edition of Diamondbacks Report will briefly review the Red Sox series before previewing the key details of the four games with the Rockies.

Diamondbacks – Red Sox Series Summary

Game One was a 7–2 Red Sox victory in a game that didn’t even feel like it was that close. The struggles of highly touted rookie Diamondbacks pitching prospect Brandon Pfaadt continued, as the Red Sox punished every mistake he made. When Pfaadt left the game, he had given up five runs on eight hits after facing 19 hitters…and it was still the fourth inning. That put the Diamondbacks in a 5–0 hole they never recovered from, thanks to the pitching of Chris Sale, Josh Winckowski, and Brennan Bernardino.

Game Two was a pitchers’ duel highlighted by the return of Diamondbacks right-hander Zach Davies from the injured list. Davies only lasted into the fourth as well but had coughed up two runs. (Note: One was a runner inherited by Kyle Nelson.) Nelson, Tommy Henry, Austin Adams, Scott McGough, and Miguel Castro combined for 5 2/3 scoreless innings. But Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Whitlock shut down the Diamondbacks offense, limiting them to not only three hits but three baserunners — two in the first inning (one as a solo home run) and one in the fifth. Kutter Crawford, Chris Martin, and Kenley Jansen combined for four perfect innings of relief as the Red Sox prevailed, 2–1.

Game Three was another terrific start by Merrill Kelly, who received a postgame comparison to Greg Maddux from Red Sox manager Alex Cora. Corbin Carroll and Josh Rojas hit a two-run homer and RBI single, respectively in the first inning. Geraldo Perdomo cracked a leadoff homer in the second, giving the Diamondbacks all the runs they needed for their 4–2 victory.

Diamondbacks and Rockies Storylines

The Diamondbacks snapped a three-game losing streak with their win over the Red Sox Sunday. They have not lost more than three in a row at any point in 2023 — and they’ve only done that twice. In addition, the Diamondbacks have yet to be swept. Conversely, they have yet to sweep anyone. To keep pace with the Dodgers, and to hang onto the third-best record in the NL, they must win this series. Both the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves (32–21) — the two teams ahead of them — are playing last-place teams. The Dodgers host the Washington Nationals (23–30), while the Braves visit the hapless Oakland Athletics (10–45).

The Rockies, after an abysmal 8–20 start, have gone 16–10 since. Winners of five of their last seven, they find themselves a half-game out of fourth place. A series win here would probably get them into fourth place and would pull them within four games of .500, something that seemed farcical as little as a month ago. Especially impressive is that they’ve played as well as they have despite the absence of C.J. Cron. The 2022 All-Star first baseman has been on the injured list since May 15 with back spasms.

Pitching Matchups between the Diamondbacks and Rockies

Game One — Monday, May 29, 1:10 pm Arizona Time

Game One is a Memorial Day matchup between a pair of rookies, Rockies righty Karl Kauffmann (0–2, 9.35 ERA, 186 ERA-minus) and Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson (1–2, 5.02 ERA, 113 ERA-minus). This will be Kauffmann’s third-ever major league game, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

In Kauffmann’s appearances, two starts with neither as a quality start, he has struck out six, walked five, and has a 2.077 WHIP across 8 2/3 innings. On average, he pitches 4 1/3 innings per start and gets one run of support per nine innings from his team while he’s in the game. Opponents are batting .371 against him, 119 points higher than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

In Nelson’s ten appearances, all starts with three as a quality start, he has struck out 36, walked 15, and has a 1.365 WHIP across 52 innings. On average, he pitches 5 1/3 innings per start and gets about five and a half runs of support per nine innings from his team while he’s in the game. Opponents are batting .281 against him, 29 points higher than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

Matchups with Current Rosters

Kauffmann has neither faced the Diamondbacks nor anyone on the team’s active roster.

Nelson faced the Rockies on April 30 in Denver. It was a start he’d like to forget, allowing six runs on nine hits while walking one, striking out two, and surrendering a homer in four innings. The Diamondbacks lost that game, 12–4.

Eight Rockies on the active roster faced Nelson in that game. One — Jurickson Profar — also faced Nelson six times in 2022 while with the San Diego Padres. Overall, Profar is 4-for-9 against Nelson with two doubles and a strikeout. Ryan McMahon is 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Charlie Blackmon and his legendary beard are 1-for-1 with an RBI, a walk, and a sacrifice fly. Elias Diaz is 2-for-2 with a double. Three Rockies are 1-for-2 — Harold Castro, Ezequiel Tovar, and Mike Moustakas, who also has two RBI. Randal Grichuk is 0-for-2 with a strikeout.

Game Two — Tuesday, May 30, 6:40 pm Arizona Time

Game Two is the marquee matchup of the series. It features each team’s ace, Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland (4–5, 3.86 ERA, 77 ERA-minus) and Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen (6–2, 2.97 ERA, 67 ERA-minus).

In Freeland’s 11 appearances, all starts with six as a quality start, he has struck out 42, walked 14, and has a 1.286 WHIP across 58 1/3 innings. On average, he pitches 5 1/3 innings per start and gets about three and a half runs of support per nine innings from his team while he’s in the game. Opponents are batting .270 against him, 18 points higher than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

In Gallen’s 11 appearances, all starts with six as a quality start, he has struck out 75, walked 14, and has a 1.020 WHIP across 66 2/3 innings. On average, he pitches six innings per start and gets a shade under five runs of support per nine innings from his team while he’s in the game. Opponents are batting .217 against him, 35 points lower than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

Matchups with Current Rosters

Freeland has faced the Diamondbacks 18 times, all starts. He has gone 3–7 with a 5.34 ERA, 69 strikeouts, 33 walks, 16 homers, and a 1.433 WHIP across 97 2/3 innings. Four Diamondbacks have faced him 30 or more times. Ketel Marte, with 44 plate appearances, is 12-for-37 with four doubles, two homers, five RBI, six walks, seven strikeouts, and a hit-by-pitch. Evan Longoria has faced him 41 times and is 11-for-36 with two doubles, a triple, two homers, six RBI, four walks, eight strikeouts, and a hit-by-pitch. Nick Ahmed, with 39 plate appearances, is 8-for-35 with four doubles, two homers, eight RBI, two walks, five strikeouts, and two sacrifice flies. Christian Walker, in 30 plate appearances, is 7-for-27 with two doubles, two homers, five RBI, two walks, two strikeouts, and a sacrifice fly. Also of note is that he has grounded into four double plays.

Seven other Diamondbacks on the active roster have faced Freeland. Emmanuel Rivera is 1-for-6. Josh Rojas is 2-for-5 with a strikeout. Pavin Smith is 1-for-5 with a strikeout. Both Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Geraldo Perdomo are 1-for-2 with a walk. Gabriel Moreno is 1-for-2 with a strikeout, while Corbin Carroll is 0-for-2.

Zac Gallen vs. the Rockies

Gallen has faced the Rockies more than any other major league team — 12 times, all starts. He has gone 5–1 with a 2.66 ERA, 85 strikeouts, 20 walks, five homers, and a 1.155 WHIP across 71 innings. Eight Rockies on the active roster have faced him. Charlie Blackmon is 10-for-33 with three doubles, a walk, a hit-by-pitch, and 12 strikeouts. Ryan McMahon is 6-for-30 with two doubles, four RBI, four walks, and 10 strikeouts. Jurickson Profar is 3-for-10 with an RBI, four walks, and two strikeouts. Kris Bryant is 2-for-9 with a double, a homer, two RBI, three walks, and two strikeouts. The other Rockies to face Gallen are Elias Diaz, 1-for-6 with two strikeouts; Mike Moustakas, 1-for-6 with a strikeout; Randal Grichuk, 1-for-4 with a strikeout; and Austin Wynns, 0-for-4.

Game Three — Wednesday, May 31, 6:40 pm Arizona Time

#Rockies    RHP Dinelson Lamet, after three strong injury rehab starts (back stiffness) at Triple-A @ABQTopes, threw today at @CoorsField and will be part of the next road trip. He’ll probably start Wednesday at #Dbacks.

— Thomas Harding (@harding_at_mlb) May 28, 2023

The official websites list both team’s starters as “TBA.” However, in the tweet above, MLB.com’s Rockies beat writer Thomas Harding — as reliable a source as any — stated that Dinelson Lamet (1–1, 12.66 ERA, 252 ERA-minus) will probably start Wednesday for the Rockies. And Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said after Saturday’s game against the Red Sox that left-hander Tommy Henry (2–1, 4.50 ERA, 102 ERA-minus) will start for the Diamondbacks Wednesday. So…we will run with this information.

Lamet, currently rehabbing from injury, has not made a start since 2021. This season, he has made 12 relief appearances, striking out 13 and walking 12 for a 2.438 WHIP across 10 2/3 innings. Opponents are batting .318 against him, 66 points higher than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

In Henry’s seven appearances, six starts with two as a quality start, he has struck out 18, walked 14, and has a 1.382 WHIP across 34 innings. On average, he pitches 5 1/3 innings per start and gets about six and a half runs of support per nine innings from his team while he’s in the game. Opponents are batting .258 against him, six points higher than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

Matchups with Current Rosters

Lamet has faced the Diamondbacks 13 times, with six as starts. He is 3–3 with a 6.94 ERA, 43 strikeouts, 11 walks, eight homers, and a 1.286 WHIP across 35 innings.

Eleven Diamondbacks on the active roster have faced Lamet. Ketel Marte is 3-for-14 with two doubles, two RBI, six strikeouts, a hit-by-pitch, and a sacrifice fly. Christian Walker is 4-for-11 with two doubles, a homer, three RBI, and three strikeouts. Evan Longoria is 2-for-9 with three RBI, five strikeouts, and a sacrifice fly. Josh Rojas is 2-for-7 with two doubles, two RBI, and a strikeout. Nick Ahmed is 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. Jake McCarthy is 2-for-3 with a triple and an RBI. Geraldo Perdomo is 1-for-3. Corbin Carroll is 1-for-1 with a walk. Emmanuel Rivera is 0-for-2 with two strikeouts, while both Gabriel Moreno and Pavin Smith are 0-for-1.

Henry has faced the Rockies twice, both starts. He is 2–0 with a 5.91 ERA, allowing seven runs on 12 hits across 10 2/3 innings. In addition, he walked four and struck out six, making for a 1.500 WHIP while notably not allowing a homer.

Henry has faced ten Rockies from the active roster. Ryan McMahon is 4-for-6 with two doubles, two RBI, and a strikeout. Randal Grichuk 2-for-5 with a double and a strikeout. Elias Diaz is 1-for-3 with a strikeout. Both Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant are 0-for-3, Bryant with a strikeout. Three Rockies are 1-for-2: Jurickson Profar, Ezequiel Tovar, and Alan Trejo. Profar has a homer and two RBI, while Tovar has a triple and Trejo has an RBI. Austin Wynns is 1-for-1 with a homer, an RBI, and a walk. Brenton Doyle is 0-for-1 with a walk.

Game Four — Thursday, June 1, 12:40 pm Arizona Time

Game Four pits Rockies right-hander Chase Anderson (0–0, 1.31 ERA, 34 ERA-minus with the Rockies) against Diamondbacks righty Zach Davies (0–1, 5.68 ERA, 128 ERA-minus). In a startling coincidence, when their careers are compared to one another, they have a similarity score (creation of Bill James) of 985.0. This means, basically, that their career numbers are 98.5% identical to each other.

In Anderson’s three appearances with the Rockies, all starts with none as a quality start, he has struck out eight, walked four, and has a 1.085 WHIP across 15 2/3 innings. On average, he pitches 5 1/3 innings per start and gets a shade under five runs of support per nine innings from his team while he’s in the game. Opponents are batting .236 against him, 16 points lower than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

In Davies’ three appearances, all starts with none as a quality start, he has struck out ten, walked eight, and has a 1.737 WHIP across 12 2/3 innings. On average, he pitches 4 1/3 innings per start and gets six runs of support per nine innings from his team while he’s in the game. Opponents are batting .286 against him, 34 points higher than the NL average of .252. The following table compares his percentages and his WHIP to the NL average.

Matchups with Current Rosters

Anderson, who debuted with the Diamondbacks in 2014, has faced them six times, all starts. These appearances came between 2016 and 2019, while he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. He is 4–1 with a 1.80 ERA, 37 strikeouts, 12 walks, three homers, and a 0.971 WHIP across 35 innings. Six Diamondbacks on the active roster have faced him. Evan Longoria is 3-for-10 with a double, a triple, and a strikeout. Nick Ahmed is 2-for-9 with a strikeout. Ketel Marte is 2-for-5 with a double, two RBI, and two walks. Christian Walker is 2-for-2. Josh Rojas is 0-for-2 with a strikeout, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 0-for-1.

Davies has faced the Rockies 13 times, all starts. He is 4–3 with a 4.36 ERA, 51 strikeouts, 28 walks, 13 homers, and a 1.318 WHIP across 66 innings.

Eleven Rockies on the active roster have faced Davies. Kris Bryant is 18-for-52 with three doubles, a triple, two homers, six RBI, a walk, a hit-by-pitch, and six strikeouts. Charlie Blackmon is 3-for-30 with six strikeouts and a sacrifice bunt. Elias Diaz is 7-for-20 with two homers, seven RBI, two walks, and two strikeouts. Ryan McMahon is 5-for-19 with a double, two homers, two RBI, three walks, and three strikeouts. Randal Grichuk is 2-for-16 with two walks and five strikeouts. Mike Moustakas is 2-for-5 with a double, an RBI, and two walks. Jurickson Profar is 0-for-5 with a strikeout. Harold Castro is 3-for-4 with a triple and an RBI. Alan Trejo is 1-for-2. Austin Wynns is 0-for-2, while Nolan Jones is 0-for-1.

Reliever Comparisons

Rockies

The Rockies have eight relievers currently active. All pitchers are right-handed unless followed by (L).

Long relief

• Peter Lambert — 6 GR, 15 2/3 IP, 4 inherited runners (IR)/1 inherited runners scored (IS) (25%), 1.277 WHIP, 26.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 6.3 HR%.

Middle relief

• Matt Carasiti — 3 GR, 4 1/3 IP, 2 IR/0 IS (0%), 2.538 WHIP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 0.0 HR%.
• Brad Hand (L) — 20 GR, 18 2/3 IP, 14 IR/4 IS (29%), 1.232 WHIP, 33.3 K%, 9.0 BB%, 0.0 HR%.
• Daniel Bard — 13 GR, 14 1/3 IP, 3 IR/0 IS (0%), 1.326 WHIP, 18.6 K%, 18.6 BB%, 1.7 HR%.
• Brent Suter (L) — 22 GR, 31 2/3 IP, 12 IR/2 IS (17%), 1.105 WHIP, 21.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 0.0 HR%.

Set-up

• Jake Bird — 25 GR, 34 2/3 IP, 17 IR/8 IS (47%), 1.183 WHIP, 24.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, 1.4 HR%, 0/2 SV/OPP (0%).
• Justin Lawrence — 24 GR, 29 1/3 IP, 9 IR/1 IS (11%), 1.125 WHIP, 26.9 K%, 10.1 BB%, 0.8 HR%, 0/0 SV/OPP (—).

Closer

• Pierce Johnson — 23 GR, 21 2/3 IP, 4 IR/0 IS (0%), 1.800 WHIP, 27.9 K%, 12.5 BB%, 4.8 HR%, 11/11 SV/OPP (100%).

Scoreless Outings

The Rockies relievers on the active roster have pitched a combined 143 games in relief (GR). Of the 143, 100 have been scoreless — 69.9%, 11th in the National League, whose active roster average is 72.4% and overall average is 69.2%. Here is the scoreless percentage (ScOtg%) for each reliever on the active roster, as of the end of play on Sunday. Also included is the percentage when only considering earned runs (ER Only).

When only considering earned runs, the Rockies jump to 73.4%, eighth in the NL.

Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have eight relievers currently active. All pitchers are right-handed unless followed by (L). They do not have a true closer but instead use their “back end” in the most favorable matchups based on where their opponents are in their batting order during the late innings. Drey Jameson’s numbers are only from his relief appearances. Jose Ruiz’s totals are from his time with the Diamondbacks only.

Long relief

• Drey Jameson — 3 GR, 8 1/3 IP, 5 IR/0 IS (0%), 1.200 WHIP, 23.5 K%, 14.7 BB%, 5.9 HR%.

Middle relief

• Kevin Ginkel — 20 GR, 23 1/3 IP, 10 IR/4 IS (40%), 1.243 WHIP, 21.4 K%, 8.2 BB%, 1.0 HR%.
• Jose Ruiz — 18 GR, 20 1/3 IP, 5 IR/3 IS (60%), 1.525 WHIP, 21.3 K%, 9.6 BB%, 3.2 HR%.
• Kyle Nelson (L) — 25 GR, 20 2/3 IP, 20 IR/7 IS (35%), 1.403 WHIP, 27.8 K%, 7.8 BB%, 3.3 HR%.
• Austin Adams — 3 GR, 2 IP, 2 IR/0 IS (0%), 0.500 WHIP, 42.9 K%, 14.3 BB%, 0.0 HR%.

Back End

• Scott McGough — 25 GR, 27 2/3 IP, 8 IR/0 IS (0%), 0.940 WHIP, 28.2 K%, 10.0 BB%, 4.6 HR%, 1/4 SV/OPP (25%).
• Andrew Chafin (L) — 25 GR, 20 IP, 15 IR/8 IS (53%), 1.250 WHIP, 35.3 K%, 8.2 BB%, 2.4 HR%, 7/9 SV/OPP (78%).
• Miguel Castro — 26 GR, 24 1/3 IP, 10 IR/4 IS (40%), 0.986 WHIP, 22.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 1.0 HR%, 5/6 SV/OPP (83%).

Scoreless Outings

The Diamondbacks relievers on the active roster have pitched a combined 146 games in relief (GR). Of the 146, 110 have been scoreless — 75.3%, fifth in the National League, whose active roster average is 72.4% and overall average is 69.2%. Here is the scoreless percentage (ScOtg%) for each reliever on the active roster, as of the end of play on Sunday. Also included is the percentage when only considering earned runs (ER Only).

When only considering earned runs, the Diamondbacks jump to 78.8%, second in the NL and fourth in the majors.

Lineup Comparisons

Here is each team’s typical lineup against right-handed starters. Please note that the Rockies are missing C.J. Cron, who is on the IL with back spasms. In addition, center fielder Brenton Doyle, who bruised his knee May 25 after colliding with the wall, is not 100%. wRAA = Weighted Runs Above Average; DRS = Defensive Runs Saved. DRS is only at the specified position.

Rockies

Diamondbacks

Here is each team’s typical lineup against left-handed starters, given the injury limitations the Rockies currently face.

Rockies

Diamondbacks

Recent History between the Diamondbacks and Rockies

The Diamondbacks and Rockies met April 28–30 in Denver, where the Diamondbacks took two of three. Since they have both been in the NL West since their inceptions, they have played every year of the Diamondbacks’ existence. From 2016 to the present, their season series have been fairly even. In 2016 and 2017, the Diamondbacks took the season series — 10–9 in ’16 and 11–8 in ’17 (12–8 when including the NL Wild Card game). The Rockies took the series in ‘18 (11–8), ’19 (10–9), ’21 (10–9), and ’22 (10–9). In ‘20, the teams played to a 5–5 split.

Schedules for the Rest of the NL West

The first-place Dodgers, as mentioned before, are hosting a three-game series with the Nationals, who are in the NL East basement. In San Francisco, the third-place Giants (27–26) return from a seven-game road trip to host a three-gamer with the Pittsburgh Pirates (26–26, second in the NL Central). The fourth-place San Diego Padres (24–29) are off Monday before finishing their nine-game East Coast road trip with a three-game Tuesday-to-Thursday series against the Miami Marlins (28–26, second in the NL East).

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