Respect your Elder(s)

June 7, 2023

The Atlanta Braves have looked to an unsuspecting source in a season riddled with pitcher injuries, struggles on the mound, and inconsistencies. That source is a young 24-year-old pitcher from the University of Texas by the name of Bryce Elder. The Braves drafted Elder in the fifth round of 2022, and he debuted on April 12, 2022, against the Washington Nationals.

The championship-hopeful Braves trusted a young 22-year old kid who had a rotation around him of Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, Spencer Strider, and Ian Anderson. After playing in the minors and the majors in 2022, Elder is considered “mediocre” and not good enough to make the majors. A pitcher who seems to have little chance of being good is now one of the most surprising players in baseball. The adage of “respect your elders,” even when it doesn’t seem right, is now the saying of the Braves’ clubhouse this season.

Potential, yet Not Up to Par for 2022

2022 was never supposed to be the year that Elder permanently crashed into the starting rotation. He was never seen to make a splash when drafted out of Texas. When scouted by ProspectsLive, Elder seemed to be a middle reliever or, at most, appearing to be a low-end starter in his career. With Elder’s minor league career, the splits were looked at as nothing glamorizing. His Triple-A statistics show that the ERA sits at 4.46, with a WHIP of 1.190. The ERA is nothing special, and the WHIP is not too high.

However, the majors were a jump for Elder in some departments. The big righty had a 3.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.241. The numbers of H/9 and HR/9 decreased in the majors. Elder also had one shutout performance against the Washington Nationals at the end of 2022, becoming the first Braves rookie to throw a shutout since 1990. However, Elder held a 2–4 record in the big leagues. This made Elder a fifth man rotation candidate for the Braves going into the 2023 season, and he has some competition.

Bryce Elder Breaks Through

Bryce Elder’s breakthrough is one of the surprising headlines in 2o23. All 11 of his starts this year have gone five innings or more, and only one start he has conceded more than three earned runs (four against the Miami Marlins). Elder’s ERA has topped off at 2.17 this season, and now sits at 1.92 ERA pending his start on June 6 against the New York Mets. The ERA of Elder is first in the majors and is no fluke. The ERA+ considering players’ ballparks is 231, still leading the majors.

His WHIP of 1.157 is 32nd in the majors. He is not a punch out pitcher either, only racking up 56 strikeouts in 65 2/3 IP. Most surprisingly, he is still undefeated, sitting at 3-0 this season. Elder’s pitch selection is a 4-seam fastball, sinker, slider, and changeup. Elder’s 4-seam fastball tops off at 93 mph and is only used 12% of the time. So what makes Bryce Elder’s numbers and pitching so unique?

Breaking Down Advanced Statistics

Baseball is lovely for many reasons. One of the beauties of America’s pastime is the number of statistics available in baseball. Many advanced statistics may be used. Many situations are at play in the game. Advanced statistics have been the name of the game for many fans. If you were to look at a picture of advanced statistics, who would you think is who?

https://twitter.com/BrooksThomason/status/1666218104509153282?s=20

This is Rays AL Cy Young leading candidate Shane McClanahan on the left and Bryce Elder on the right. Both are close in WHIP, and both are close in ERA—however, the advanced statistics back up McClanahan way more. Elder looks like a “bonafide scrub” compared to McClanahan. They are close compared to statistics, but they are not close in advanced statistics.

Grounders Galore

As stated earlier, Bryce Elder is not the king of strikeouts He is more of a ground ball machine. Per inning pitched, Bryce Elder is second in the majors behind Marcus Stroman in ground balls. He has a percentage of 56.5% in groundballs, which is much higher than his 14.5% flyball percentage. Not only does he get you to ground out, but he also has the pitching arsenal to combat any batter. Elder’s specialty has always been ground balls. That’s why he may have advanced statistics look bad, but the current statistics are great. Bryce Elder looks to keep the plan going for the rest of the year.