Reliever Roundup and Bullpen Bonanza — June 12 Team Rankings
We are in the 11th week of the season. By now, we know what these teams are made of, including their relievers. Sample sizes are big enough to give accurate bullpen rankings, so here we go. Stats are accurate as of the end of play on June 11. Rosters are accurate as of June 12 at 10 am Pacific.
These rankings are not interested in what some guy in the minors did back in April before he was sent down. We want to see whose current relief roster is the toughest. That will be most useful when watching and analyzing games.
Rankings are split into the following categories. These categories encompass what a relief pitcher’s jobs are and are weighted according to importance. We don’t want to get bogged down, so we’ll keep it brief. (Author’s Note: For full details, leave a comment and I’ll be glad to get back to you.)
Clutch (45% of score) — How well they perform in late innings either while the game is tied or while holding a narrow lead.
Run Prevention (35%) — How well they keep runs off the board, including inherited runners.
Baserunner Prevention (13%) — Who has the best WHIP.
Command (7%) — Who has the best strikeout percentage minus walk percentage (K–BB%).
The total score in each category is based on the league average. Zero points equals the league average. Positive scores are better than league average; negative scores are worse. The farther their score is from zero — either positive or negative — the farther they are from the league average.
(Note: Due to weighting each score, adding the four categories together won’t equal the total score.)
For a full breakdown of each category’s score formula, click here.
June 12 Team Reliever and Bullpen Rankings
The Outliers
1. Milwaukee Brewers (66.4, First in NL)
141.0 Clutch, 5.1 Run Prevention, 8.3 Baserunners, 1.2 Command
The top relief corps in the National League is also the top relief corps in the majors, and it’s by a huge margin. In the late innings of close or tie games, forget it — the Brewers are virtually automatic. Two months into the season, Devin Williams still has no broken eggs. For those who prefer saves, he has yet to blow one of those, either. They keep runs off the board, with a 78.3% scoreless percentage. Only the Pirates, Mets, and Dodgers are stingier when it comes to inherited runners. Their ERA-minus is the fourth lowest, and their WHIP is second lowest. If they have a weakness — and we do mean if — it’s their K–BB%, which is a smidge above the league average.
Better Take an Early Lead…
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (37.6, Second in NL)
69.8 Clutch, 12.9 Run Prevention, 6.1 Baserunners, 13.3 Command
The Pirates also have an elite back end of the ‘pen, including David Bednar, one of the top closers in baseball. In addition, Dauri Moreta and Colin Holderman have had great seasons thus far. The Pirates’ scoreless percentage is the highest in the NL and their inherited runners percentage is the second lowest. In addition, the Pirates rank highly in reliever WHIP and are second in the NL in K–BB%.
3. Seattle Mariners (36.5, First in AL)
70.3 Clutch, 8.7 Run Prevention, 0.3 Baserunners, 25.3 Command
The top firemen in the AL due to high ratings in clutch and command. They are also the AL leaders in scoreless percentage, but a relatively high inherited runners scored percentage is holding them back. Their WHIP, which is slightly above the AL average, could use some improvement, but this is a tough unit. Gabe Speier has a scoreless percentage near 90%. Justin Topa has been outstanding in setup, and Paul Sewald is one of the elite closers in the AL.
4. Miami Marlins (22.9, Third in NL)
45.1 Clutch, 4.2 Run Prevention, 1.0 Baserunners, 15.1 Command
The Marlins excel at putting up zeros in late innings of tie games or while holding a narrow lead. They also have the best K–BB% and are fourth in the NL in scoreless percentage. An area where they need some work is WHIP, but with it being slightly lower than the league average, it’s a case of it being “fine” instead of good, great, or elite.
5. San Francisco Giants (19.6, Fourth in NL)
39.2 Clutch, 0.4 Run Prevention, 8.2 Baserunners, 11.4 Command
The Giants are efficient at maintaining late, close leads or keeping tie games tied, with Tyler Rogers leading the charge. They also command the zone well, trailing only the Marlins and Pirates in NL reliever K–BB%. Not surprisingly, their Reliever WHIP is also low. They could use a higher scoreless percentage, however, as it made their run prevention rating suffer.
The Very Good
6. Cleveland Guardians (15.9, Second in AL)
22.7 Clutch, 14.2 Run Prevention, 6.0 Baserunners, -1.3 Command
The Guardians do well in Clutch and Run Prevention, ranking fifth in the AL in the former and third in the latter. They’re above average in WHIP but are struggling with command. Trevor Stephan and Emmanuel Clase have been their top performers both in Clutch and Run Prevention.
7. Detroit Tigers (15.5, Third in AL)
44.8 Clutch, -10.4 Run Prevention, -1.5 Baserunners, -11.4 Command
The Tigers are boosted heavily by their late-game clutch, which is the second highest in the AL. Alex Lange and Jason Foley have been especially good in this regard. Run prevention — namely inherited runners scored percentage, which is third highest in the AL — hurts their score. Being third from the bottom in K–BB% by an AL team hurts their score even more, although the blow is lessened by it being in the category with the lowest weight.
8. Baltimore Orioles (14.8, Fourth in AL)
27.9 Clutch, 1.7 Run Prevention, 1.6 Baserunners, 20.9 Command
The Orioles also gain high marks for late-inning clutch, with Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista being among the league’s best. They are slightly better than average in Reliever WHIP but do well in the Command department thanks to a strong K–BB%. They need to improve their run prevention, especially in the inherited runners department, to move up on this list.
9. New York Yankees (13.7, Fifth in AL)
27.4 Clutch, 3.6 Run Prevention, 4.7 Baserunners, -7.0 Command
The Yankees are strong in clutch, thanks largely to the efforts of Michael King and especially Clay Holmes. But they are close to average in everything else. In run prevention and baserunners, they are slightly better than league average. Command is their biggest struggle, as they are fourth from last in the AL.
10. Toronto Blue Jays (2.8, Seventh in AL)
19.3 Clutch, 3.7 Run Prevention, 3.2 Baserunners, 31.0 Command
Their active roster’s clutch rating improved greatly when they dumped the struggling Anthony Bass. They have been decent in run prevention and WHIP but rank especially high in Command. Of note is Erik Swanson, who has been exceptionally good in late innings, and Jordan Romano, who has been better than average.
The Slightly Above Average
11. Atlanta Braves (7.4, Fifth in NL)
18.0 Clutch, -6.2 Run Prevention, 6.7 Baserunners, 8.4 Command
Had this run last week, the Braves would have been 17th. But their clutch has rapidly improved, and they have consequently leapt to 11th. Run prevention is still negative, but their WHIP and K–BB% are both above average, so their run prevention should also improve before long. Closer Raisel Iglesias has been close to automatic.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks (3.9, Sixth in NL)
6.2 Clutch, 3.3 Run Prevention, -1.0 Baserunners, 1.8 Command
The Diamondbacks have been “bend but don’t break” all season, due to their high WHIP. They usually keep the runners from scoring, but every now and then the dam bursts. Also hurting the Diamondbacks is inherited runners, which is much higher than the league average despite trending in the right direction. Miguel Castro and Andrew Chafin have been consistent in the clutch, despite some recent hiccups. But the two biggest stories recently have been Austin Adams and Scott McGough. Adams has only given up a run in one of his eight appearances. McGough has given up one earned run total since May 9, a span of 13 appearances, and has yet to allow an inherited runner to score.
13. Los Angeles Angels (3.6, Seventh in AL)
9.0 Clutch, -2.9 Run Prevention, 2.9 Baserunners, 2.5 Command
Their clutch is barely above league average, while their run prevention is barely below it. Their WHIP and Command are decent. However, everything will greatly improve when they get Matt Moore back from injury. Carlos Estevez and the rejuvenated Chris Devenski have put up strong numbers, but they haven’t been enough to make up for the struggles of everyone else in the unit.
14. Boston Red Sox (3.4, Eighth in AL)
5.6 Clutch, 1.7 Run Prevention, 7.0 Baserunners, -8.9 Command
The Red Sox are above average in Run Prevention — especially in stranding inherited runners — and in WHIP. Their Clutch, however, is below average, as is their command, which is fourth lowest in the American League. Josh Winckowski has been their most clutch performer. Kenley Jansen leads the team in scoreless percentage, followed closely by Chris Martin.
The Average
15. San Diego Padres (0.5, Seventh in NL)
-4.9 Clutch, 4.6 Run Prevention, 9.4 Baserunners, -1.8 Command
The Padres do very well at keeping runners off base and at keeping them from scoring. However, their K–BB% is strongly negative due to being fourth lowest in the NL. They also need to improve their clutch, which is close to league average. Nick Martinez and Josh Hader have been their most clutch performers. Those two, plus Steven Wilson and Tim Hill, have excelled in run prevention. Tom Cosgrove has also been a welcome addition.
16. New York Mets (-0.2, Eighth in NL)
-5.6 Clutch, 1.6 Run Prevention, 8.3 Baserunners, 9.6 Command
The Mets are better than average in WHIP and K–BB%. Unfortunately for their rankings, those are the categories with the two lowest weights. They are better than the NL average in run prevention, albeit just barely. In most important category of clutch late innings, they are below average and trending downward in a hurry. (Last week, for example, they would have been fifth.) Their struggles in this area played a role in their recent seven-game skid.
17. Chicago White Sox (-0.4, Ninth in AL)
0.2 Clutch, -1.4 Run Prevention, 0.2 Baserunners, 0.0 Command
The White Sox are trending upward, especially in Clutch, but are still within five percent of the league average in the other three categories. Following Clutch, their next best category is WHIP. Kendall Graveman and Keynan Middleton have been their two most effective relievers up to this point.
The Below Average
18. Minnesota Twins (-2.5, 10th in AL)
-10.5 Clutch, 5.6 Run Prevention, 1.2 Baserunners, 1.9 Command
The Twins are rapidly trending in the wrong direction when it comes to clutch. They do decently in every other category, however, ranking above average in all three.
19. Cincinnati Reds (-4.7, Ninth in NL)
-11.4 Clutch, -0.7 Run Prevention, 4.4 Baserunners, 0.6 Command
The Reds have a pretty good WHIP and a decent K–BB%. Outside of Alexis Diaz, who has been one of the elite relievers in the National League, that’s about all the good we can say. Despite Diaz, their run prevention has been slightly below league average and their clutch has been a mess.
20. Philadelphia Phillies (-5.3, 10th in NL)
-11.4 Clutch, 1.1 Run Prevention, -5.3 Baserunners, 1.8 Command
The Phillies do a decent job keeping runs off the board. That is, unless it’s late in a tie game or while they’re holding a narrow lead. They need to improve their WHIP in order to turn this around.
Lots of Work to Do
21. St. Louis Cardinals (-8.1, 11th in NL)
-13.2 Clutch, -4.3 Run Prevention, -6.1 Baserunners, 2.4 Command
The Cardinals are below average in everything except command, where they are slightly above average. In Clutch, they are way below average. This comes despite the nice seasons Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley are having.
22. Kansas City Royals (-9.1, 11th in AL)
-10.2 Clutch, -11.4 Run Prevention, -9.4 Baserunners, 10.8 Command
The Royals do very well in K–BB%. In everything else, they do not. Despite all this, Scott Barlow and Aroldis Chapman will probably be trade targets as we approach the Deadline.
23. Houston Astros (-9.8, 12th in AL)
-22.3 Clutch, 4.5 Run Prevention, 1.9 Baserunners, 25.3 Command
Hector Neris has been a stud, especially in the clutch. Rafael Montero has not, and Ryan Pressly has been so-so. This has hurt the Astros in clutch situations and in run prevention, despite their strong performance in Command. Their WHIP is also higher than they’d like, causing their score to suffer further.
Stock Up on Tums
24. Tampa Bay Rays (-10.9, 13th in AL)
-16.0 Clutch, 0.3 Run Prevention, -7.8 Baserunners, -39.9 Command
The Achilles heel on the best team in baseball. They’re trending upward in run prevention, baserunners, and command but downward in clutch. It should be noted that the more accurate term for command is not “better” but “less bad.” Their K–BB% is 9.5%, 14th in the AL, with only the lowly Oakland Athletics below them.
25. Los Angeles Dodgers (-13.0, 12th in NL)
-26.6 Clutch, 1.5 Run Prevention, -9.9 Baserunners, -3.6 Command
The Dodgers are slightly better than average at run prevention unless it’s in a clutch situation. A lot of it comes from their struggles with command, which leads to a higher-than-average amount of baserunners. Improving their WHIP and K–BB% should help them in clutch situations. And with the team trending downward in both clutch and run prevention, they need to turn this around soon unless they want to depend on blowouts to win games.
26. Colorado Rockies (-16.5, 13th in NL)
-25.8 Clutch, -5.8 Run Prevention, -10.7 Baserunners, -21.7 Command
The Rockies are well below league average in every category, with run prevention being the only one that isn’t a double-digit negative. They can claim a better-than-average IS%, but that’s about it. A candle in the darkness has been Justin Lawrence, who has been fairly good in the setup role. Daniel Bard has only allowed a run in two of 18 appearances but is not yet ready to return to the closer role. Pierce Johnson had been doing well as the interim closer until about two weeks ago but has since been assigned to a different role.
Pray for a Blowout Win
27. Texas Rangers (-18.5, 14th in AL)
-43.8 Clutch, 0.5 Run Prevention, 8.2 Baserunners, -0.6 Command
The Rangers have one of the highest run differentials at this point of the season in major league history. That is a good thing, because outside of Will Smith, their ‘pen is a disaster. As the trade deadline looms closer, expect them to be the among the most active teams around, pursuing relievers almost obsessively.
28. Washington Nationals (-18.5, 14th in NL)
-26.1 Clutch, -8.9 Run Prevention, -7.3 Baserunners, -31.3 Command
One guy on this entire squad, active or not, has a scoreless percentage of 80.0% or above. That one guy is Hunter Harvey, whose percentage is exactly 80.0%. The Nationals are rebuilding, and that includes the relief corps. They are either below average or well below average in every category. (Note: The Rangers and Nationals are only tied in total score due to rounding. If carried out to two decimals, their scores are -18.49 and -18.54, respectively.)
29. Chicago Cubs (-19.4, 15th in NL)
-34.3 Clutch, -7.1 Run Prevention, -11.4 Baserunners, 0.0 Command
The Cubs are right at the league average in K–BB%. Their scores in the other three categories are atrocious. Mark Leiter Jr. has been their best reliever and has done a decent job protecting late, narrow leads, but he hasn’t had many opportunities to do so.
The Wrong Kind of Outlier
30. Oakland Athletics (-34.2, 15th in AL)
-51.4 Clutch, -14.1 Run Prevention, -18.8 Baserunners, -53.2 Command
The Athletics have struggled in almost every aspect of the game, and relief pitching is no exception. We’re talking about a team that took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and lost the game as soon as the starter was pulled. Generally, the more relievers a team uses in a season, the worse their corps is. The Athletics have used 22, while most teams are between 12 and 16. (Exception: the Rays, who change relievers like most people change socks, in addition to using lots of openers, have 25.)
Full Score Explanation
For clutch, we will use both the Goose Egg total (33%) and the ratio of Goose Eggs to Broken Eggs (67%) due to the major flaws in Saves and Holds. Full details about Goose Eggs are here. Otherwise, here’s the elevator speech.
A Goose Egg is like a save, except more restrictive. Here are the main points…
- It’s done inning by inning, starting in the seventh.
- Maximum of a two-run lead, not three, but it also includes tie games. Like the save, exceptions are made if the tying run is on base or at bat. (Not on deck, however.)
- Run Breakdown:
- No run of any kind — earned, unearned, or inherited — scores, it’s a goose egg (GE).
- Earned run charged to the pitcher, it’s a broken egg (BE).
- Any other run scores, it’s neither.
- Earned run scores in an inning where he closes out the victory, it’s also neither.
- Starts the inning and gives up no runs, but doesn’t finish the inning, it’s also neither.
- He must finish the inning while recording the following number of outs:
- No one on when he starts the inning — all three;
- One on — at least two;
- Two or three on — at least one.
- Any time it’s “neither,” it’s called a “Meh,” as in “nothing special.” They’re like a stalemate in chess and count as nothing, so we really don’t talk about them.
- Most important is the ratio of GE to BE (GE/BE). The historical average, dating to 1921, is 3.0, or 3-to-1.
Here are the latest totals of each.
For run prevention, we will use a mixture of the Scoreless Outing Percentage (Earned Runs only), Inherited Runners Scored Percentage (IS%), and ERA-minus. ScOtg% is 75% of the score, IS% is 15%, and ERA-minus is 10%.
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