2024 NL Wild Card Picture Entering Sunday
The NL Wild Card, heading into Sunday, still sees three times fighting for two spots. The Atlanta Braves (88–71) currently have the best record of the trio, with the New York Mets (87–72) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88–73) close behind. Here is what must happen for each of the teams to clinch a Wild Card spot.
Magic Number Definition and How to Calculate
Recall that a Magic Number is the combination of Team A wins plus Team B losses that will make it impossible for Team B to finish the season ahead of Team A. Click/tap here to see the calculation method. When you’re finished, hit “back” in your browser to return to this article.
Magic Numbers for Each Remaining Team
The Diamondbacks have one game remaining, hosting the San Diego Padres Sunday afternoon.
Both the Braves and Mets have three games remaining. On Sunday, the Mets play a road game against the NL Central Champion Milwaukee Brewers as the Braves host the Kansas City Royals. The Braves and Mets finish their regular season slate Monday with a make-up double header in Atlanta.
Atlanta Braves
Since the Braves hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, we don’t need to add one to our formula. Therefore…
162 – 88 – 73 = 1
…their Magic Number is one. If the Braves win one more game or the Diamondbacks lose one more, the Braves are in.
New York Mets
The Mets also hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. Therefore…
162 – 87 – 73 = 2
…their magic number is two. Any combination of Mets wins or Diamondbacks losses equaling two gets the Mets into the playoffs.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Since the Diamondbacks are currently not in playoff position, we must calculate their magic number differently.
Both the Braves and Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, so we must add one to the formulas. For the Diamondbacks to get in at the expense of the Braves…
162 + 1 – 88 – 71 = 4
…the magic number is four. This is only possible if the Diamondbacks win Sunday and the Braves lose all three of their remaining games. For the Diamondbacks to get in at the expense of the Mets…
162 + 1 – 88 – 72 = 3
…the magic number is three. This gives the Diamondbacks more possibilities — a win plus two Mets losses or three Braves losses gets them in. Plus, if the Diamondbacks win Sunday and the Braves and Mets both lose, one of those two scenarios is guaranteed to happen, since one Mets loss or two Braves losses are guaranteed Monday. If the Diamondbacks lose, they can still make it, but only if the Mets fail to win another game.
Quick Reference for All Sunday Scenarios
- All three teams win — Braves clinch; Mets need to win one game in the Monday double header; Diamondbacks need Mets to be swept Monday
- All three teams lose — Braves clinch; Mets need to win one game Monday; Diamondbacks need Mets to be swept Monday
- Braves win, Mets and Diamondbacks both lose — Braves clinch; Mets need to win one game Monday; Diamondbacks need Mets to be swept Monday
- Braves win, Mets lose, Diamondbacks win — Braves clinch; Mets need to sweep Monday; Diamondbacks need Mets to lose at least one game Monday
- Braves lose, Mets and Diamondbacks both win — Braves need one win Monday; Mets need one win Monday; Diamondbacks need one team to sweep Monday
- Braves and Mets both win, Diamondbacks lose — Braves and Mets both clinch; Monday double header is for seeding; Diamondbacks are eliminated
- Braves lose, Mets win, Diamondbacks lose — Braves and Mets both clinch; Monday double header is for seeding; Diamondbacks are eliminated
- Braves and Mets both lose, Diamondbacks win — Diamondbacks clinch; Braves need one win Monday; Mets need to sweep Monday
Isn’t this fun?
