A Guide to Magic Numbers

Photo by Wilfred Perez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

September 27, 2024

Magic Numbers Explained

It’s late September, so baseball fans have seen the word “Magic Number” all over the place the past few days. What a Magic Number is, and how it’s calculated, can cause confusion, but there is no need to fret. We at Sport Relay will take care of that.

Definition and How to Calculate

A Magic Number is the combination of Team A wins plus Team B losses that will make it impossible for Team B to finish the season ahead of Team A.

How to Calculate If Team A Holds the Tiebreaker

If Team A holds the tiebreaker over Team B, use the following formula:

Total Games in Season – Team A Wins – Team B Losses = Magic Number

Say the (fictional) Robins and Leopards are fighting for the final playoff spot in their league. The Robins hold the tiebreaker over the Leopards since they won the season head-to-head series. If the teams finish with the same record, the Robins are in. Now say the Robins have an 89–70 record and the Leopards have an 87–71 record. Using the formula, we get…

162 – 89 – 71 = 2

Any combination of Robin wins plus Leopard losses equaling two clinches the playoffs for the Robins.

How to Calculate If Team B Holds the Tiebreaker

If Team B holds the tiebreaker, add one to the total games in a season.

Total Games in Season + 1 – Team A Wins – Team B Losses = Magic Number

Let’s use the same scenario as the previous section, but instead, we’ll say the Leopards won the season series. We get…

162 + 1 – 89 – 71 = 3

Any combination of Robin wins plus Leopard losses equaling three clinches the playoffs for the Robins.

Using a Magic Number

We can use a Magic Number for division championships, a playoff berth, a first-round bye, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and home-field advantage throughout the entire postseason. (Recall that “playoffs” does not include the World Series, but “postseason” does.)

Current Magic Numbers Entering Friday, September 27

Now it gets fun. Each league has two playoff spots still up for grabs. The American League has three teams that can still make it. In descending order of record, the teams are the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Minnesota Twins. There are also three National League teams still alive. In descending order of record, they are the New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Atlanta Braves. Let’s look at the magic numbers for each specific team.

National League

New York Mets – 5

The Mets (87–70) are off Thursday. Over the weekend, they have three road games against the Milwaukee Brewers. Afterwards they have a road doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, making up the two games that were postponed by weather related to Hurricane Helene. The Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks (88–71) after winning the season series, 4–3. We do not yet know if the Mets will hold the tiebreaker over the Braves (86–71), since their current record against the Braves is 5–6 with two games left, so we’ll calculate their number as if the Braves hold the tiebreaker. Since the Braves are the lowest-ranked team still alive, they will be Team B.

162 + 1 – 87 – 71 = 5

For the Mets to clinch the playoffs, the magic number is five.

Arizona Diamondbacks — 4 or 3, depending on how it’s viewed

The Diamondbacks (88–71) finish their schedule with three home games against the San Diego Padres over the weekend. They lost their season series with the Mets, 4–3, and the Braves, 5–2, so they do not hold the tiebreaker over either team. Let’s work out the math with the Braves as Team B (Scenario 1) and the Mets as Team B (Scenario 2).

Scenario 1: 162 + 1 – 88 – 71 = 4
Scenario 2: 162 + 1 – 88 – 70 = 5

This makes the magic number four. If neither scenario happens, the Diamondbacks will miss the playoffs.

But there’s a caveat. If the number of Diamondbacks wins plus Braves losses reaches three, it will be impossible for neither scenario to happen. This is because the Mets and Braves play two games against one another on Monday. There are three possible outcomes for the double header: a Braves sweep, a Mets sweep, or a split. This means we are guaranteed to see either one Braves loss or two Mets losses Monday.

Atlanta Braves – 5 or 6, but they need teams ahead of them to lose

The Braves (86–71) also have five games left, all at home. They play three against the American League’s Kansas City Royals over the weekend followed by the Monday doubleheader against the Mets. The Braves hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks by virtue of their 5–2 record against the Snakes.

Using the Diamondbacks as Team B gives the Braves a magic number of five. However, there is a caveat. Since the Braves currently trail the Diamondbacks in the standings, this only puts the Braves in the playoffs if the Diamondbacks do not reach their magic number.

162 – 86 – 71 = 5

Using the Mets as Team B gives the Braves a magic number of six, so long as the Mets do not reach their magic number. This can happen if the Braves sweep the Royals and the Brewers sweep the Mets. It can also happen regardless of what happens in Milwaukee if the Braves take two of three from the Royals and then sweep the doubleheader.

162 + 1 – 86 – 70 = 6

American League

Detroit Tigers — 1

The Tigers (85–74) have a magic number of one, and they host the hapless Chicago White Sox (39–120) over the weekend.

162 + 1 – 85 – 77 = 1

Kansas City Royals — 1

The Royals (85–74) also have a magic number of one. They will play three road games against the Atlanta Braves (86–71) over the weekend.

162 + 1 – 85 – 77 = 1

Minnesota Twins — 6

Since the Twins (82–77) hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers (85–74) and over the Royals (85–74), we don’t have to do the “+1” part of the formula. However, since the Twins currently trail both the Tigers and Royals in the standings, one of the two must fail to reach their magic number for the Twins to make the playoffs. This will only be possible if the Twins sweep the Baltimore Orioles (88–71) and either the Tigers or Royals get swept.

162 – 82 –74 = 6