Fernando Tatis Jr., in all six years he’s been in the majors, has never performed as poorly as he did in May. With a batting average below the Mendoza line and a .626 OPS, his slump followed a career-best March/April. During this period, his slash line fell from .345/.409/.602 to .269/.338/.491, that’s an over fifteen percent decrease in all departments. The only thing that increased was Tatis Jr.’s strikeout rate, which rose from 15% to 22.1%.
Despite this lapse in offensive power, the All-Star remains the most valuable player on the San Diego Padres roster, leading the team in WAR and tying the lead with Manny Machado in total runs scored. However, with one-third of the 2025 season over and a difficult schedule ahead, something needs to give if the team wants to continue on the positive trajectory they started on.
State of Affairs
Currently, the club sits one game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Of their next 16 games, 13 will be against divisional rivals, meaning they have an amazing opportunity to gain some leverage against their peers.
The Padres recently played the first game of a four-game series against the San Francisco Giants. In said game, the teams held each other scoreless for all nine innings. The Padres managed to squeak out a victory in extras after they cashed in on their automatic base runner. Not a great omen for the road ahead, but ultimately indicative of both teams’ recent struggles with offense.
Fernando Tatis Jr. just so happens to be the most egregious case, given his proven track record and career-worst numbers. With all that said, what gives?
Something is Wrong
It’s worth noting that during May, Tatis Jr. still scored the second-most runs for the Padres despite hitting at his worst. It’s still a far cry from what fans have come to expect from the Silver Slugger, but still an important distinction. It may indicate that appearances are worse than the reality of the game.
Statistically speaking, in May, Tatis Jr. didn’t face any high-stress situations. His average leverage index was league average. This was not a huge jump from the games he played during March/April.
That being said, Tatis Jr.’s weighted on-base average in May did fall below his expected numbers, which could indicate some bad luck in his recent plate appearances.
What’s more than likely, however, is that Tatis Jr. has failed to produce quality at-bats. While Tatis Jr. may be known as a power hitter, he’s also tremendous at simply putting the ball into play. However, in May, Tatis Jr.’s fly ball and pop-up rate skyrocketed to 34.6 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively. This may not appear significant, but this is a nearly 10 percent increase on both fronts from the previous month of play.
While there’s no direct way to explain why he suddenly started hitting so many fly balls, it certainly explains why, on the surface, Fernando isn’t producing.
The Reality
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s recent slump isn’t without some level of collective guilt. As a team, the swinging Friars slashed a .238/.301/.377 with a collective .678 OPS in May. A steady decline since their franchise’s best start. Baseball is a team sport and requires all parts of the team to work harmoniously to win.
For some time now, the bottom half of the Padres’ batting order has been a gaping hole, this essentially forces Tatis Jr. to often produce without any backup. This is way harder to do than most realize.
The reality of baseball is more mundane than people would like to believe. Baseball is a game of chance, and every single day, batters step up to the plate and take it. Baseball players are not robots, and some days are better than others.
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Despite a minor setback, it’s only a matter of time before the silver slugger gets himself back on track. The more interesting question is when, not if.
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