Manny Machado, Some Others on Pace for 3000 Hit Club

Manny Machado smashing his 2000th hit, putting him 2/3 of the way to the 3000 Hit Club

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

July 9, 2025

Manny Machado, a Few Others on Pace for 3000 Hits

With San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado joining the 2000 Hit Club Monday night, speculation as to whether he’ll join the more exclusive 3000 Hit Club is natural. There are 33 members of this club, and when it comes to Hall of Fame voting, the 3000 Hit Club is an “automatic” milestone. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are not eligible yet but will make it easily. The other 3000 Hit Club members to not be voted in by the writers either got in trouble (Pete Rose) or had PED ties (Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro). Machado is well on his way to joining this elite group, as are a few others. Surprisingly, there are 11 active players with a realistic chance to do it and eight “maybes.”

The Method

Just as we did last time we published an article like this one, which was shortly after Freddie Freeman cracked his 2000th hit, we created a list using some math. When creating this list, we only included players in their tenth year or later. Anyone shy of 10 years went in the “too early to tell” category. Secondly, we’re obviously assuming everyone stays healthy, so please leave that cop-out of an argument at the door.

If a player plays 20 seasons, then he’ll get exactly 3000 hits by averaging 150 per year. Consequently, what we did for this list was project how many hits these players will have at the end of the 2025 season, based on his current pace. (Exact method is here.) Then we answered the following question: “If _________ averages 150 hits a year for the rest of his career, in what year will he reach 3000?”

Next, we looked at how old he will be in that season. If his age was 42 or younger, we classified him as “realistic.” Five players came in at 43, so we called them “maybes.” Age 44 or older was too remote for us to consider. Our reason: every member of the club except Cap Anson (45) and Ty Cobb (34) was in his late 30s or early 40s when he joined. Only Anson was older than 42, even.

“Likely”

To split up the “realistic” group, we classified any player whose age came up as 40 or lower as “likely.” (Again, we don’t want to hear “if he stays healthy.” That is obvious.) And finally, if his current-year pace will give him fewer than 140 hits in 2025, we bumped him down one level. (“Likely” became “realistic,” and “realistic” became “maybe.”)

We don’t want to get bogged down, so here’s the list. “Current hit totals” include everything up to the end of play Monday night, July 7, 2025. (For a more detailed explanation of our calculation methods, click here.)

Likely Future Members of the 3000 Hit Club

Of active players, the top five in career hits all have 2000 or more. In order, they are Freeman (2358), Jose Altuve (2325), Andrew McCutchen (2226), Paul Goldschmidt (2148), and Machado (2001). The two oldest of the five are McCutchen (38) and Goldschmidt (37). When we last published predictions, at the pace McCutchen was going, he was not going to reach 3000 until he was 44. Since then, he has increased his production. Therefore, at their current paces, three of the active 2000 Hit Club members all have a likely chance of reaching 3000, and the other two are “maybes.”

Given the parameters we set, two others are also “likely,” making five total. Additionally, there are six with a realistic chance of reaching 3000 and six more “maybes.” Here they are, grouped by likelihood and listed in chronological order by the year they’ll hit 3000 at the rate we set.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman currently has 2358 hits and, at his current pace, will end the season at around 2435. Averaging 150 a year for the rest of his career will have him notching number 3000 in late 2029, when he’ll be 39 or, if on or after September 12, 40.

Jose Altuve

Altuve joined the 2000 Hit Club August 19, 2023, against the Seattle Mariners and currently has 2323 hits. We project his year-end total to be 2394. If he averages 150 hits per year for the rest of his career, he will reach 3000 early in 2030. If it happens on or after May 6, he’ll be 40.

Manny Machado

Machado currently has 2001 hits, and we project he will have 2082 at year’s end. The 150-hits-per-year pace will have him reach 3000 early in 2032, when he will be 39.

Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts is on pace for 144 hits in 2025, which isn’t quite 150, but he can easily make up the difference in a later year. 144 hits would give him 1837 for his career. The 150-per-year rate would get him to 3000 in late 2033, when he’d be 40 or, if on or after October 1, 41.

Francisco Lindor

Ramirez’s former teammate and partner on the left side of the diamond is on pace for 166 hits in 2025, which would give him 1658 for his career. Averaging 150 hits per year beyond that would bring Lindor to 3000 in late 2034, when he’ll be 40.

Realistic (Possible?) Future Members of the 3000 Hit Club

Nick Castellanos

Castellanos’ current pace to reach 166 hits in 2025 would bring him to 1771 for his career. An average of 150 hits per year for the rest of his career would get him to 3000 in early 2034, when he will be 42.

Mookie Betts

Betts is also on pace for 144 hits in 2025, which would give him 1759 for his career. At 150 hits per year, he would reach 3000 early in 2034, when he’ll be 41.

Christian Yelich

Yelich is currently on a 151-hit pace for 2025. That would get him to 1741 career hits. An average of 150 hits per year in the coming seasons would get him to 3000 around mid-2034, when he will be 42.

Jose Ramirez

To fans outside of Cleveland, did you know the Guardians have a great switch-hitting third baseman named Jose Ramirez? He is quietly putting together a nice career, finishing top-five in the AL MVP voting five times already. In 2024, he missed 40-40 by one home run, something completely overshadowed by Shohei Ohtani’s 50-50 season.

Anyway, he is on pace for 177 hits in 2025, which would give him 1677. The 150-per-year pace would get him to 3000 toward the end of 2034. If it happens before September 17, he’ll be 41; if it happens on or after September 17, he’ll be 42.

Trea Turner

The speedy Turner is also piling up hits in 2025, as he is currently both leading the NL and on pace for 196. That would get him to 1548 for his career. Continuing at an average of 150 hits per year would get Turner to 3000 in mid-2035, when he will be 42.

Stealing 19 bases per year over the same stretch would also get Turner to 500 career stolen bases. That would make him the eighth player in major league history to crack 3000 hits AND steal 500 bases. The seven current 3000-500 players are some guys you might have heard of: Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, Honus Wagner, Ichiro Suzuki, and Paul Molitor.

Carlos Correa

Dodger fans, go pick up the shoe you just threw across the room and take some deep breaths on the way back to your chair. The Twins shortstop is on pace to end the season with 135 hits, which would bring him to 1285 for his career. We know, that isn’t even halfway to 3000, but it is still a realistic milestone for Correa. An average of 150 hits per year would get him to 3000 in mid-2037, when he will be 42.

“Maybes” — Longshots for the 3000 Hit Club

Now for the players that will need a lot to break in their favor and/or would have to kick their production up to get to a 150-hit-per-year pace. There are seven players in this group — the Maybes.

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen is on pace for 130 hits in 2025, which would give him 2282 at year’s end. Increasing his hits-per-year production to 150 would get him to 3000 toward the end of 2030, when he will be 43.

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt is on pace for 160 hits in 2025. That would give him 2216 for his career, and continuing at an average of 150 hits per year would make him 43 when reaching 3000 in early 2031.

Nolan Arenado

Arenado is on pace to have 134 hits in 2025, which would give him 1960 for his career. He’ll have to pick up the pace to get back to 150 per year, and doing so would have him reaching 3000 toward the end of 2032, when he will be 41.

Bryce Harper

Harper has missed 21 games due to injury this season, so we project him to end the year at 117. This would give him 1787 career hits at year’s end, and 150 per year beyond that would get him to 3000 in early 2034, when he’ll be 41.

Mike Trout

Trout is hitting at a pace that would bring him to 110 for the season and bring him to 1758 for his career. An average of 150 hits per year from 2026 onward would get him to 3000 in early 2034, when he will be 42, but he would need quite a resurgence to increase his production from 110 to 150. Therefore, we dropped him from “realistic” to “maybe.”

Ketel Marte

Marte is on pace for 139 hits in 2025, and that would get him to 1276 for his career. Averaging 150 hits per year from 2026 onward would get him to 3000 in mid-2037, when he will be 43.

Alex Bregman

Bregman is also on pace to reach 3000 hits in mid-2037, when he would also be 43. If he returns from injury Thursday as the latest injury report suggests will happen, he will be on pace for 142 hits this season. That would get him to 1274. As we showed with Correa and Marte, 150 hits per year means reaching 3000 in mid-2037.

Corey Seager

Seager has had trouble staying on the field in 2025, so he is only projected to reach 113 hits on the season. Doing so would get him to 1264 for his career, and 150 hits per year beyond this season would get him to 3000 in (this is a recording) mid-2037, when he will also be 43.

Looking Ahead

True, there are a lot of variables that must break in these players’ favor. Natural decline kicks in at a different age for everyone. Most of the players listed here will not make it. In fact, if even one third of these players reach 3000 that’ll be amazing. But it’ll be fun to watch. Furthermore, we’ve never had more than two players join the club in the same season, and we’ve only had two join in the same season five times. Yet with the 150-hit-per-year pace, there could (key word: could) be seven (gasp!) players reaching it in 2034 — Harper, Betts, Ramirez, Lindor, Castellanos, Trout, and Yelich.

Calculation Methods

To project a player’s total for 2025, we figured out what percentage of his team’s games that he’s played in. For example, Ramirez has played in 86 of the Guardians’ 89 games, which is around 96.6%. Multiplying that percentage by 162 gives us his projected game total — 157. We also divided his at-bats by his games played to figure out how many at-bats he gets per game. Multiplying that answer by his projected games gave us an estimate of how many at-bats he will get this season. Then we multiplied that answer by his current batting average for this season to estimate how many hits he will have on the year. Adding this number to his career hits through the end of 2024 gave us a year-end career hits estimate.

Injured Players

With the players who have been injured this season — Harper, Trout, Correa, Marte, Seager, Bregman, and Freeman — we figured out how many games each played out of how many each was eligible to play in. For example, Freeman missed nine games early in the season. While healthy enough to play, he has played in 79 of a possible 83 games — roughly 95.2%. Applying that percentage to 153 games (162 minus 9) gives us his projected number of 146. Then we took the same steps as we took with everyone else.

As our final step, we subtracted the player’s projected year-end career hits total from 3000 to figure out how many more hits he needs. Dividing that answer by 150 gave us how many years it would take. For example, we projected that Freeman will end the season with 2435 career hits, 565 shy of 3000. Dividing 565 by 150 gives us 3.77. Adding that to 2025 gives us 2028.77, meaning that he’ll reach 3000 near the end of the 2029 season.