With spring training in full swing for the Baltimore Orioles in Sarasota, the regular season will be upon us in the blink of an eye. Before the season starts in earnest, here are three bold predictions for the 2026 Orioles.
Orioles Lead American League in Home Runs
Embed from Getty Images
In a season where the Orioles underperformed mightily offensively in 2025, the ball club still finished 11th in Major League Baseball in team home runs despite the team’s leader only having 17. The mark is shared by Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Jackson Holliday. Westburg only played in 85 games and Henderson hit 37 the year prior in 2024, showing that their numbers could greatly improve from 2025 to the 2026 season.
On top of that, the Orioles went big in the offseason to acquire some true middle-of-the-lineup power. The team added 74 home runs between two players in Pete Alonso through free agency with 38, and Taylor Ward through a trade with the Los Angeles Angels with 36, a career high. Alonso is the New York Mets all-time home runs leader, having hit fewer than 34 in a season only once, and that was in a COVID-shortened 2020 season. The New York Yankees topped the list for AL team home runs for the second consecutive season in 2025 with 274, the Orioles finished with 191, which is a difference of 83 homers. The 74 homers Alonso and Ward hit in 2025 would have put the Orioles within nine of the Yankees’ total.
Number One Prospect on the Horizon
Samuel Basallo, the team’s number one prospect, has also shown that he has immense power and with a full season at the big league level in 2026, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him put 20 or more balls into the bleachers. Basallo had 23 long balls in Triple-A Norfolk in 76 games in 2025. All these factors play into the Orioles’ home run numbers sharply increasing in 2026. Taking things one step further to have a prediction within the prediction, it is not out of the question for the Orioles to have four players eclipse the 30 home run mark this season between Henderson, Alonso, Ward, and Basallo. If Westburg and Holliday return from injury quickly and play over 120 games each, they too could also reach the 30 dinger benchmark.
Orioles Win Their First Playoff Game and Series Since 2014
It has been a rough go for the Orioles in the playoffs ever since beating the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS in 2014. The Kansas City Royals later swept the Orioles in the ALCS that year. Since then the team lost a Wild Card matchup in 2016, and got swept in the ALDS and Wild Card in back-to-back seasons in 2023 and 2024. After missing the playoffs in a disappointing 2025 campaign, the team is coming back with a vengeance and a variety of new stars. With the help of Alonso and Ward, pitchers like Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley, and Chris Bassitt, along with a new coaching staff under first-year manager Craig Alberanz, the team will not only return to the playoffs, but they will win their first playoff game in 12 years and take at least one series in the process.
Three Baby Birds Finish as Finalists for Rookie of the Year
2025 was the first year since 2021 where the Orioles didn’t have a rookie finish in the top two of voting for the American League Rookie of the Year. In 2026, it is very much in play for the Orioles to find their way back into the voting for the award, and to take it a step further, the team will finish with all three finalists on their roster, but those three will not necessarily be there for Opening Day. Dylan Beavers and Samuel Basallo both got a lot of reps in Major League Baseball in the 2025 season, debuting on August 16 and 17, respectively. Both players have also retained their rookie status, making them eligible for the award in 2026.
Beavers has elite-level plate discipline and can easily find a hot bat, considering he hit .305 with an .894 OPS in his first 20 big league appearances. A hot bat like that over a few extended periods of the season, coupled with his plus defense and high walk numbers will easily propel him into being a finalist for Rookie of the Year in 2026. Samuel Basallo, the former number one overall prospect in all of baseball, has elite power potential. Simply put, if the rookie catcher and first baseman launches 30 home runs, he will not only be a finalist for Rookie of the Year, but he will most likely win it.
Young Pitching Prospects Moving Through Minors
Finally, the Orioles have a plethora of young arms in their top 30 prospects list– ten of the top 17 prospects to be exact. Several of them could make their big league debuts in 2026, and Trey Gibson is likely at the top of the list. Gibson, a non-roster invitee to major league spring training, has shown flashes of real promise. Gibson is a pro-ready arm who is going to be the first call-up if the team needs pitching help, provided he doesn’t make the roster out of camp. His role would be as a swingman at first, which would be a mix of starting and relieving. If Gibson’s experience in the minors (12 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9) translates to the majors, it will firmly land him in the race for Rookie of the Year and could very easily earn him a top-three finish for the award.
More Baltimore Orioles Articles
More MLB Articles
Main Photo:
- Category
-
Baltimore Orioles
