The San Diego Padres head back home, following a series sweep against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. They return to Petco Park to face division rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both clubs spent hang time in first place, but right now it seems like a chance to make some strides to hold it. Right now, they’re the only teams above .500 in their division.
The Padres may rank among the lowest in the majors in most hitting categories, but they still manage to scrap together victories, often decisively. This is largely due to their reliance on pitching, not just their bullpen, but their starting rotation as well.
With that in mind, it’s worth a look at just how much their rotation has shifted since the season began.
Pivetta and Musgrove
The Padres acquired Nick Pivetta last year in perhaps one of the most under-the-radar free agent signings of that offseason. Pivetta would go on to have a career year for the Friars in 2025 and finish sixth in Cy Young voting.
Nick Pivetta was named the opening-day starter for the Friars before the 2026 season began and looked pretty healthy in his starts during spring training. However, his opening day start against the Detroit Tigers left much to be desired. His nerves got the better of him, and he would take the loss that very game, going just three innings and allowing six earned runs.
Pivetta would make four more starts before hitting the IL with an elbow flexor strain. For many, this could spell the absolute worst, but Manager Craig Stammen felt they might have caught the stiffness in time before any major damage could be done. The Canadian-born thrower was the cornerstone of the Padres rotation, but without him, the Padres have certainly made do with what they have.
Right now, his recovery timeline is up in the air, and he has not returned to the mound since.
The same goes for Joe Musgrove, who encountered a major setback during spring training following his exhibition start against Great Britain. There was a time when both men seemed like locks for the Padres starting rotation, but as of now, that reality doesn’t seem very plausible.
Waldron and Marquez
For knuckleballer Matt Waldron and former Colorado Rockies ace German Marquez, their time with the Padres has been a roller coaster that has led both men to the injured list.
Once upon a time, Waldron was one of the Padres’ most reliable starters, pitching 146 2/3 innings in 2024 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.261 WHIP.
His most recent stint with the club, which came following Pivetta’s absence, has not been nearly as impressive or consistent. In his initial three starts for the club, Waldron went 13 2/3 innings, allowing 15 runs and striking out eight. Following these games, relief pitcher Bradgley Rodriguez would open for him, getting out the first few in the lineup and letting him round the rotation at a slower pace. This led to mixed results: 7 2/3 innings with seven earned runs and ten strikeouts.
Waldron made one final appearance in relief, closing out a Padres loss against the Milwaukee Brewers. He hit the injured list the following day with a right brachialis muscle injury in his upper arm. Apparently, pitching through the discomfort before it worsened. As of now, his place in the club is more or less ambiguous.
A similar thing can be said for Márquez, who hit the injured list with right forearm nerve inflammation following a rough start against the Chicago White Sox. But Marquez has a winning record as a Padre, going 3-2 in his six starts. His 5.76 ERA isn’t too pretty, but was pretty heavily marred by his meager outing against the Sox. Marquez began a throwing program not long ago and won’t be activated until June at the earliest.
King
There was a possible future where Michael King wasn’t a Padre. However, circumstances would inevitably line up and would bring the King back to San Diego.
As a result, King is back on pace to have another successful season as a front-line starter. In his nine starts, King commands a 2.63 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP while fanning 50 in his 51 1/3 innings.
His 2025 stint was unfortunately marred by injury, keeping him away from his 2024 numbers. But his starts so far are impressive and demonstrate his elite-level command of the ball. His changeup is still puzzling hitters like it always has, and he’s still baiting weak contact on pitches lower in the zone. For the Padres’ sake, let’s hope he stays healthy all season long.
Vazquez
Perhaps the most surprising development in the starting rotation is Randy Vazquez. He has a short history with the Padres, but he’s displaying enough flashes of brilliance that his place with the team feels cemented.
Vazquez has been shaky in his previous two seasons, but this year he seems to be finally living up to his potential as a starter. In his first start of the season, Vazquez went six innings against the Tigers, allowing no runs and striking out eight. Currently, his 2.68 ERA is the lowest it’s ever been with 50+ innings to his name.
During the offseason, Vazquez went back to the drawing board and came back far stronger. Most notably, the righty added around three mph to his fastball. This is a feat he had never accomplished before in the majors. This has made him more comfortable relying on it against both left-handed and right-handed batters. While he’s also leaning on his cutter the same as last season, both pitches seem to be doing a lot more for him than they were before.
Buehler
The ex-Dodger came into the Padres rotation confident after finally shaking off elbow pain that had plagued him for years since he got his second Tommy John surgery in 2022.
It would be unfair to call Walker Buehler’s short stint with the Padres horrible, but it’s certainly nothing flashy. So far, he’s going relatively deep into starts while allowing four or fewer runs in each start. It’s more a side effect of the Padres ineffective hitting strategy that the crew hasn’t thrived while he’s on the mound. That said, there’s plenty of time for Buehler to return to form and get really efficient for the club. As a middle rotation guy, Buehler is doing his job, and there should be no complaints about that.
Canning
Griffin Canning was another under-the-radar AJ Preller pick that could still completely shift the Padres’ starting rotation, provided he can return to last year’s numbers.
In 2025 with the New York Mets, Canning started 16 games and posted a 3.77 ERA and 1.376 WHIP. By all accounts, a career year for the righty. He could have done even better if his campaign hadn’t been cut off due to injury. Canning went unsigned until the Padres picked him up on a 1 year, 2.5 million deal. He started the 2026 season on the IL but recently returned to slot into the Padres’ starting rotation.
In his first start against the White Sox, Canning had a dominant performance, turning in five innings of one-run ball.
His previous two starts had been a bit rough, ballooning his ERA above ten, but low sample sizes will do that to you. His start against the Brew Crew was particularly rough, only lasting an inning before imploding on the mound. However, judging Canning based on this performance is extremely unfair and callous.
He has plenty of time to settle into his role and has a good probability of returning to form. He displayed great command of his change-up and slider, which garnered a lot of swings and misses from batters. Canning, who is currently in his age-30 season, is likely starting to transition away from relying on the heater to fan hitters. This is something that may benefit him more than others would think.
He has the chance to redeem himself in his upcoming start against the Dodgers on May 19.
Giolito
Lucas Giolito went unsigned until the Padres struck a deal with the former Boston Red Sox righty in early April. Giolito made four starts in the minors and joined the Padres rotation to close out the away series against the aforementioned Mariners.
Giolito demonstrated exceptional control, pitching 5 2/3 scoreless frames against the M’s. Despite often reaching full counts, Giolito managed to dig himself out time and time again, baiting tons of weak grounders from Mariners hitters.
He exited the game in the sixth inning after loading the bases with no outs. Lefty Yuki Matsui came in to relieve him and cashed in every runner he left on base.
Despite that, his start was very promising and inspired a lot of hope for his future as a mainstay in the rotation.
On the Horizon
Despite a myriad of setbacks, the Padres remain steadfast in their pursuit of what could be a back-to-back-to-back postseason bid. A feat they’ve never achieved in franchise history.
Right now, the club with its current pace projects to win 101 games, a far cry from initial projections for the club. It’s all dependent on whether the Padres can activate their bats.
The Padres play the Dodgers at home in a 3-game series, May 18-20. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the starting pitcher for the Dodgers and has a 1-2 record against the Padres with a 6.38 ERA across 4 appearances. The previously mentioned King will start for the Padres. Against the Dodgers, he has a 2-0 record with an ERA of 2.82 in five career appearances.
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