These Players Have a Realistic Chance at the 3000 Hit Club
Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman notched his 2000th career hit with an eighth-inning double Sunday night against the Houston Astros. Naturally, this raises the question of whether he’ll reach the next major milestone — the 3000 Hit Club. The most recent addition to this elite group of 33 was Miguel Cabrera, who cracked number 3000 on April 23, 2022, with a single against the Colorado Rockies. The naysaying “we’ll never see another” chirpers started their usual song as soon as Cabrera touched first base that afternoon, but a thoughtful look at the career numbers of active major leaguers tells a different story. There are seven, including Freeman, with a realistic chance to do it, and two more that we’ve classified as “maybe.”
The Method
When creating this list, we only included players in their tenth year or later. Anyone shy of 10 years went in the “too early to tell” category. Secondly, we’re obviously assuming everyone stays healthy, so please leave that cop-out of an argument at the door.
Now comes the fun. If a player plays 20 seasons, then he’ll get exactly 3000 hits by averaging 150 per year. So what we did for this list was project how many hits these players will have at the end of the 2023 season, based on his current pace. (Exact method is here.) Then we answered the following question: “If _________ averages 150 hits a year for the rest of his career, in what year will he reach 3000?” Finally, we looked at how old he will be in that season. If his age was 42 or younger, we classified him as “realistic.” Two players came in at 43, so we called them “maybes.” Age 44 or older was too remote for us to consider. Our reason: every member of the club except Cap Anson (45) and Ty Cobb (34) was in his late 30s or early 40s when he joined. Only Anson was older than 42, even.
We don’t want to get bogged down, so let’s get to the list. “Current hit totals” include everything up to the end of play Sunday night, June 25, 2023.
Realistic Future Members of the 3000 Hit Club
Freeman, with 2000 hits, is sixth on the active career hit list. Cabrera, with 3119, is the active leader. The four players between Cabrera and Freeman are Joey Votto (2098), Nelson Cruz (2049), Elvis Andrus (2036), and Andrew McCutchen (2009). Votto will turn 40 on September 10 and Cruz will turn 43 on July 1, so neither will even come close to 3000. McCutchen, who will turn 37 on October 10, is also too old. (Note: We worked it out, and at 150 hits per year, he’d reach 3000 at the age of 44.) Andrus, who turns 35 on August 26, has only played in 70% of his team’s games this season and is projected to end up with 79 hits. This could easily be his last season, but even if it isn’t, we can effectively rule him out.
That gives us seven who have a realistic chance to reach 3000 for their careers, given the parameters we set. Here they are, listed in chronological order by the year they’ll hit number 3000 at the aforementioned pace.
Freddie Freeman
Freeman currently has exactly 2000 hits. At his current pace, he will end the season at around 2103 career hits. Averaging 150 a year for the rest of his career will have him notching number 3000 in late 2029, when he’ll be 39 or, if on or after September 12, 40.
Jose Altuve
The naysayers for Altuve are quite likely blinded by their resentment from 2017. Altuve was the fastest Astro to 1000 hits, beating out career Astro and 3000 Hit Club member Craig Biggio. He currently has 1961 hits. We project that he will end the season with around 2023 career hits. This will have him, if he averages 150 hits per year for the rest of his career, reaching the milestone midway through 2030. If it is on or after May 6, he’ll be 40.
Manny Machado
We had to take some extra steps with Machado, given the games he’s missed in 2023 with injury. He currently has 1659 career hits, and we project that he will finish the season with 1737. A 150-hits-per-year pace from that point forward will have him reach 3000 midway through the 2032 season. Since his birthday is July 6, he’ll either be 39 or 40 at that point.
Mike Trout
Due to the injuries he’s suffered over the years, the last year Mike Trout had 150 or more hits in a season was 2016, so his inclusion on this list might surprise many. (Note: He missed the mark by three in 2018, when he played in 140 games.) But he currently has 1614 career hits, and we project that he’ll end this season with 1687. That will have him reaching 3000 in the 2032 season. On August 7 of that year, he will turn 41.
Nolan Arenado
While known for his otherworldly defense, Arenado is also a dependable hitter. From his third season to the present, the only season where he didn’t break 150 hits was 2020. He is on pace to break 150 again this season. He currently has 1598 on his career, and we project him to end the season with around 1683. A 150-per-year pace will have him reaching 3000 in 2032, when he will turn 41 on April 16.
Bryce Harper
Harper was another one that took some extra steps to project, given the injury that kept him shelved until May 2. He currently has 1427 career hits, and we project that he’ll end the season with around 1513. At a pace of 150 per year, he would reach 3000 hits toward the end of the 2033 season, when he will be 40.
Mookie Betts
Betts currently has 1381 hits in his career. We project him to finish the season with 1463. The 150-hits-per-year pace will have him reaching 3000 hits in the 2034 season, when he will be 41.
Maybes — Paul Goldschmidt and DJ LeMahieu
Goldschmidt will likely be the next player to reach 2000 career hits. He currently has 1834 and is on pace to end the season with 1925. Cracking 150 hits per year for the rest of his career would bring him to 3000 in the first half of 2031, when he will be 43.
LeMahieu currently has 1630 career hits. We project that he will end the season with 1688. Smacking 150 hits per year for the rest of his career will have him reaching 3000 in 2032. He will turn 44 on July 13 of that season.
Of these two, Goldschmidt is more likely to reach 3000, given both his pace to get 175 hits this season and the fact that he plays first base, which isn’t as hard on the body as the other eight defensive positions. Even still, playing until he’s 43, while not unheard of, isn’t common. With LeMahieu, if he ends the season with 1688 career hits, that would give him 112 on the season. He ended 2022 with 122, so he would have to reverse this trend to have any chance at all.
Looking Ahead
We obviously can’t predict the future with certainty, but it is still exciting to think about, especially if even half of these players end up reaching the Promised Land. Imagine if Trout, Machado, and Arenado reach all the projections and paces listed here. We could have three players join the club within a few weeks of each other, something that has never happened. In fact, we’ve only had two players join the club in the same season five times.
No matter what, claims that no one will ever get 3000 hits again are silly. We have seven players with a realistic chance to get there and two more with an outside chance. Not only that, but we don’t know how many players with fewer than ten years of experience will get to the “realistic” level yet. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Calculation Methods
To project a player’s total for 2023, we figured out what percentage of his team’s games that he’s played in. For example, Betts has played in 74 of the Dodgers’ 77 games, which is around 96%. Multiplying that percentage by 162 gives us his projected game total — 155. We also divided his at-bats by his games played to figure out how many at-bats he gets per game. Multiplying that answer by his projected games gave us an estimate of how many at-bats he will get this season. Then we multiplied that answer by his current batting average for this season to estimate how many hits he will have on the year. Adding this number to his career hits through the end of 2022 gave us a year-end career hits estimate.
With the players who have been injured — Altuve, Machado, and Harper — we figured out how many games each played out of how many each was eligible to play in. For example, Harper missed the first 30 games of the season. Since returning, he has played in 45 out of a possible 47 games — roughly 95.7%. Applying that percentage to 132 games (162 minus 30) gives us his projected number of 126. Then we took the same steps as we took with everyone else.
As our final step, we subtracted the player’s projected year-end career hits total from 3000 to figure out how many more hits he needs. Dividing that answer by 150 gave us how many years it would take. For example, we projected that Freeman will end the season with 2103 career hits, 897 shy of 3000. Dividing 897 by 150 gives us 5.98. Adding that to 2023 gives us 2028.98, meaning that he’ll reach 3000 near the end of the 2029 season. (Return to article.)
For any further questions on projections or methods, reach the author at evan@sportrelay.com.
