One Day Into Season, Experts Abound

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March 31, 2023

One day into the 2023 baseball season and social media is overflowing with profound predictions. Experts abound. All it takes is a keyboard or cell phone to have it all figured.

If you believe what you read, the Oakland Athletics surely will go 162-0. Adley Rutschman will bat 500-for-500 with 162 homers to lead the Baltimore Orioles to a World Series title. The Houston Astros‘ bullpen will blow every lead and manager Dusty Baker shall be fired by May 1. Justin Verlander‘s arm will literally fall off in New York. Cleveland Guardians reliever James Karinchak will finish the season with an 81.00 ERA.

Overreactions are everywhere every year at this time. It has been that way since Cy Young opened a season 130 years ago by allowing an unheard-of two runs and heard fans screaming, “Get rid of the bum!”

Spawning Sane & Who Will Reign

Let’s join the prognosticating fun while hopefully providing a level of sanity. Here’s what more than likely will transpire this season. Predictions are based upon decades of watching the game. That alone should be cause to ring the alarm.

Don’t expect any spectacular surprises by any team in one direction or another. The consensus contenders should battle for top spots. Teams expected to be at the bottom of the barrel should not be able to climb their way out of the pickle brine.

National League East

1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

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Atlanta has pitching, hitting, and depth. The Mets have all of that but they’re already dipping into their depth. Verlander is ailing. Don’t underestimate New York losing closer Edwin Diaz for the season. Then again, the Braves must be a little concerned after opening-day starter Max Fried left with a hamstring injury.

Oops, wait a minute. Let’s not overreact.

The Phillies have a lot of talent too, but sluggers Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are sidelined. The Marlins will make some noise every week or two with some good young players not quite ready for prime time except for elite starter Sandy Alcantara.

As for Washington, the hapless Senators of the 40s, 50s, and 60s caused a popular slogan — Washington: first in war, first in peace … and last in the American League. They’re in the NL now with a different name and equally dismal prospects. Let’s hope the second part of the old slogan never gets as dismal.

National League Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh P irates

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The Cards are stacked and can even deal from the bottom of the deck with a plentiful farm system. The only question is if injuries reoccur to their pitching staff. Jordan Walker is a rookie of the year candidate if he gets enough playing time in a loaded lineup topped by MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

The Cubs may be a surprise. New general manager Carter Hawkins has put together a team with the potential to overachieve if pickups Cody Bellinger and Trey Mancini resume slugging at Wrigley Field.

Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich is not the same due to a cranky back and the Brewers no longer have fireballing Josh Hader to save games for their good rotation.

Cincinnati’s rebuilding program seems to be a little ahead of that in Pittsburgh. Whichever team gets better pitching places fourth while the other is again in danger of losing 100 games.

National League West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

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San Diego has given gobs of money to free agents to try and surpass the Dodgers. Los Angeles lost star shortstop Trea Turner and others yet still has a prolific pitching staff. In the end, LA pitching should beat out San Diego hitting. Caution: Hader, acquired from Milwaukee, has thrown a lot of bullets the past few years. If he goes down, so do the Padres’ plans.

The Giants are a middle-of-the-pack club in a division with two behemoths. Arizona and Colorado still have a talent drought that won’t whet fan interest.

American League East

1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Boston Red Sox

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Toronto added pitching to a loaded lineup and that should be enough to boost the Blue Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. once again is an MVP candidate. New York attempted to add pitching but already has injuries to key starters Luis Severino, and Carlos Rodon. The Yankees will score runs though they are not as loaded as their fans will tell you.

The Rays and Orioles are popular picks among millions who hate the Yankees and simply ignore the Blue Jays because they are in Canada. The Rays’ approach of a little bit here, a little bit there a whole lot of players playing everywhere can get them only so far. Especially in this division. But Randy Arozarena sure is fun to watch.

The Orioles, burgeoning with young prospects everywhere are the sexy pick. More screen tests are needed. These Maryland Monroes are not fully developed. When filled out, perhaps by 2024 or 2025, it should be “Ooh La La” time in Charm City.

Even when they have been loaded with offense, the Red Sox always seem to need pitching. They lost J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts to free agency and Trevor Story is out. And they still need pitching. That won’t play in this division.

American League Central

1a. Minnesota Twins
1b. Cleveland Guardians
1c. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers

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Let’s join the wacky social media bunch and say this one ends in a three-way tie. Then let’s see what MLB does to unravel it in a fair manner. Good luck with that.

Minnesota added pitching and somehow retained Carlos Correa. It may not be enough to pull away. Cleveland added offense in Josh Bell but has some pitching injuries. It should be enough to be in the hunt. Chicago remains most talented though it’s anybody’s guess if Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, and the rest will ever mature into winners.

The Royals have veteran Salvador Perez, exciting young Bobby Witt Jr., and not enough other players to move up. The Tigers have the great Miguel Cabrera on his final-season farewell tour. They also have about 20 others likely to say farewell — possibly by mid-season.

American League West

1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics

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The Astros should soar again. The defending champs were one of the few teams who could withstand losing Verlander to free agency and Jose Altuve to injury. They remain loaded with power pitching and overwhelming offense.

The Mariners have MVP candidate Julio Rodriguez and a number of good players. They just don’t have enough to overtake Houston.

Poor Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, though after this season the Japanese Superstar and free-agent-to-be will not be remotely poor. Once again this era’s Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have little support. The Dynamic Duo’s playoffs were last month in the wondrous World Baseball Classic.

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The Texas Rangers spent, spent, and spent some more to try to move up. Prized and pricey free agent Jacob deGrom, despite his opening day pratfall, is a great pitcher. He’s also a great injury risk. As usual, the Rangers have offense. As usual, they also have holes in the defense and pitching.

Every now and again, the Athletics rise up to contend with a bunch of no-names. Not this year although Rookie of the Year candidate Esteury Ruiz could be loads of fun to watch.

Post-Season Picks

Cleveland wins the three-legged sack race in the AL Central and makes it to the AL Championship Series against Houston. The Astros advance.

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Like the Phillies did in 2022, the Mets will come out of the NL East and a wild card berth to reach the NL Championship Series. This time, the St. Louis Cardinals keep flying.

Houston, we’ve got a problem. The Cardinals take a surprising 3-1 lead in the World Series. Then the Astros kick it into hyperdrive with three straight wins en route to a second consecutive championship.

There it is. Take it to the bank. Except what makes sense now may not be worth cents later.