2023 Arizona Diamondbacks Season Preview
Long-suffering Arizona Diamondbacks fans will see the fruits of their much-hyped farm system in 2023, and after three straight losing seasons, it will not come a moment too soon. After a near miss of the Wild Card in 2019, the team had high expectations in 2020, only for the Great Shutdown and a slow start in the shortened season to quell that fire. Injuries galore, including to the entire Opening Day rotation by May 1, led to a nightmare 110-loss 2021 season. Despite vast improvements in 2022, the lack of clutch late-inning relief pitching cost them, at minimum, a winning record and very easily could have cost them a playoff spot.
But there is hope on the horizon. The new schedule, while keeping a two-and-two home-and-home series with the designated Interleague rival (2023: Texas Rangers), includes one series against each of the other 14 teams in the AL. To make room for these games, the Diamondbacks will play their NL West opponents 13 times each instead of 19 teams each. The Diamondbacks’ 2022 record against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres was a combined 10–28 (5–14 against each team), while their record against everyone else on the schedule was 64–60. Consequently, facing the Southern California Gauntlet fewer times should be welcome news for the fans.
The rotation and the position players will mostly be familiar faces. However, the relievers are almost entirely new. Before we see who will be in the dugout for Opening Day in Los Angeles against the Dodgers Thursday night, let’s see who is currently on the mend.
Injured Players
The biggest roster move the Diamondbacks made in the off-season was trading popular young outfielder/catcher Daulton Varsho to the Toronto Blue Jays for outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and catcher Gabriel Moreno. By shedding a talented left-handed-hitting outfielder, something they had in surplus, the Diamondbacks got a sound right-handed contact hitter for lineup balance. But they also got one of the top catching prospects in baseball.
The plan was to ease Moreno into the starter’s role behind Carson Kelly. But that all went out the window Monday, March 20, when Kelly was hit by a pitch on the forearm. The resultant fracture put Kelly on the injured list and moved Moreno to the top of the depth chart.
Kelly’s offensive production in 2022 was below league average and well below what he had done in 2021. In 104 games and 354 plate appearances, Kelly slashed .211 (67-for-317)/.282/.334. His other stats: 40 R, 18 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, 29 BB, 71 SO, .275 wOBA, -9.9 wRAA, and -1 Defensive Run Saved (DRS). This combined for 0.8 WAR, less than half of his 2.1 WAR from 2021.
Injured Relievers
Three relievers will also start the year on the injured list. Righty Corbin Martin (Torn lat tendon) will likely miss the season. Mark Melancon (Strained shoulder) will not be back until the All-Star Break at the earliest. Lefty and 2022 All-Star Joe Mantiply (Shoulder fatigue) will also be on the injured list, but he is not expected to miss much time, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com.
2022 Stats
Martin — 4.84 ERA, 118 ERA-minus, 5 GR, 1 ScOtg, 20.0 ScOtg%, 22 1/3 IP, 21 K (20.8%), 12 BB (11.9%), 8.9% K–BB%, 0-of-1 Inherited Runners Scored (IRS) (0%), 0-of-0 Saves, 0-0 Goose Eggs (GE)-Broken Eggs (BE), 1.657 WHIP, and -0.1 WAR.
Melancon — 4.66 ERA, 114 ERA-minus, 62 GR, 39 ScOtg, 62.9 ScOtg%, 56 IP, 35 K (14.2%), 21 BB (8.5%), 5.7% K–BB%, 1-of-3 IRS (33%), 18-of-21 Saves (86%), 21-8 GE-BE (2.6 GE/BE), 1.500 WHIP, and -0.8 WAR.
Mantiply — 2.85 ERA, 70 ERA-minus, 69 GR, 57 ScOtg, 82.6 ScOtg%, 60 IP, 61 K (25.1%), 6 BB (2.5%), 22.6% K–BB%, 16-of-35 IRS (46%), 2-of-8 Saves, 18-8 GE-BE (2.3 GE/BE), 1.083 WHIP, and 0.9 WAR.
Catchers
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Moreno debuted in 2022 as the second-best catching prospect and third-best overall prospect in the majors, according to Fangraphs, who calls him “one of the best all-around catchers in baseball.” The other half of the catching tandem will be Jose Herrera, who also debuted in 2022.
2022 Stats
Moreno — 25 G, 73 PA, .319 (22-for-69)/.356/.377, 10 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 4 BB, 8 SO, .326 wOBA, 0.9 wRAA, 2 DRS, 0.7 WAR
Herrera — 47 G, 124 PA, .189 (21-for-111)/.250/.207, 9 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 9 BB, 34 SO, .213 wOBA, -9.6 wRAA, -1 DRS, -0.3 WAR
Infielders
Christian Walker, the 2022 NL Gold Glove winner, returns at first base. Ketel Marte, who appeared hobbled the last two seasons with repeat hamstring injuries, will be at second base again. In spring training, he showed no signs of leg issues, a welcome relief for the team. Shortstop Nick Ahmed, who missed almost all of 2022 with a shoulder injury, returns fully healthy for 2023. Josh Rojas, who switched to third base for 2022, will stay at the hot corner for 2023. Veteran Evan Longoria, who signed with the Diamondbacks as a free agent in January after five seasons with the San Francisco Giants, will share time with Rojas at third. In addition, he could back up Walker when needed. Geraldo Perdomo will be a reserve middle infielder but can also play third.
2022 Stats
Walker — 160 G, 667 PA, .242 (141-for-583)/.327/.477, 84 R, 25 2B, 2 3B, 36 HR, 94 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 69 BB, 131 SO, .346 wOBA, 19.3 wRAA, 17 DRS, 5.1 WAR
Marte — 137 G, 558 PA, .240 (118-for-492)/.321/.407, 68 R, 42 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 1 CS, 55 BB, 101 SO, .317 wOBA, 3.3 wRAA, -6 DRS, 1.5 WAR
Ahmed — 17 G, 54 PA, .231 (12-for-52)/.259/.442, 7 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, 1 CS, 2 BB, 15 SO, .302 wOBA, -0.3 wRAA, -3 DRS, -0.1 WAR
Rojas — 125 G, 510 PA, .269 (119-for-443)/.349/.391, 66 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 23 SB, 3 CS, 55 BB, 98 SO, .326 wOBA, 6.6 wRAA, -1 DRS, 3.2 WAR
Longoria (with Giants) — 89 G, 298 PA, .244 (65-for-266)/.315/.451, 31 R, 13 2B, 0 3B, 14 HR, 42 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 27 BB, 83 SO, .330 wOBA, 4.8 wRAA, -4 DRS, 0.6 WAR
Perdomo — 148 G, 500 PA, .195 (84-for-431)/.285/.262, 58 R, 10 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 40 RBI, 9 SB, 2 CS, 50 BB, 103 SO, .253 wOBA, -22.6 wRAA, -2 DRS, 0.7 WAR
Outfielders
The dynamic Corbin Carroll — prohibitive favorite to be the first Diamondback ever to win NL Rookie of the Year — will be the left fielder. Gold Glove finalist Alek Thomas will man center field, with Jake McCarthy — who finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 — will be in right field. The speed of all three allows them to cover tremendous ground, which will reduce the likelihood of deep balls landing in the gap.
All three bat left-handed. For lineup balance, righties Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Kyle Lewis — who arrived in December from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Cooper Hummel — will also see time. With the Diamondbacks continuing their policy of not using a full-time designated hitter, this will allow at least one of the infield or outfield reserves to rotate into the lineup. In addition, the DH slot will be used to give a full-time player a half-day off.
2022 Stats
Carroll — 32 G, 115 PA, .260 (27-for-104)/.330/.500, 13 R, 9 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS, 8 BB, 31 SO, .358 wOBA, 4.4 wRAA, 4 DRS, 1.1 WAR
Thomas — 113 G, 411 PA, .231 (88-for-381)/.275/.344, 45 R, 17 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 4 SB, 3 CS, 22 BB, 74 SO, .272 wOBA, -12.4 wRAA, 6 DRS, 1.4 WAR
McCarthy — 99 G, 354 PA, .283 (91-for-321)/.342/.427, 53 R, 16 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 43 RBI, 23 SB, 3 CS, 23 BB, 76 SO, .337 wOBA, 7.7 wRAA, -1 DRS, 2.4 WAR
Gurriel (with Blue Jays) — 121 G, 493 PA, .291 (132-for-453)/.343/.400, 52 R, 32 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 52 RBI, 3 SB, 4 CS, 31 BB, 83 SO, .327 wOBA, 6.6 wRAA, 4 DRS, 2.2 WAR
Lewis (with Mariners) — 18 G, 62 PA, .143 (8-for-56)/.226/.304, 67 R, 0 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 5 BB, 19 SO, .239 wOBA, -3.5 wRAA, 1 DRS, -0.1 WAR
Rotation
Zac Gallen, who had a terrific 2022, will be the Opening Day starter and ace of the rotation for 2023. Gallen, who finished fifth in Cy Young voting, led the NL in WHIP in 2022 and set a franchise record for most consecutive scoreless innings with 44 1/3. This was also seventh most in AL/NL history.
Merrill Kelly will be the number two man in the rotation. Nicknamed “Merrill the Mainstay,” he led the team in wins (13), starts (33), and innings pitched (200 1/3). He also finished in the NL Top Ten in all three — tenth in wins, tied for first in starts, and fifth in innings.
Veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner will be third in the rotation. He was not satisfied with his performance for much of 2022, especially the fact that his average start lasted 5 1/3 innings. A strong showing in April of 2022 is something he and the coaching staff hopes he can both repeat and sustain in 2023.
Zach Davies returns with a new contract, while 2022 debutant Ryne Nelson will take the fifth spot. Davies’ shoulder injury in 2022 strictly limited his pitch counts and the average lengths of his starts after he returned. The goal of the limits was to ease him back into action so that he could have longer outings this season and beyond. If that happens, look for an increase in the number of decisions he figures into. Davies is also one of the best pitchers in the NL when it comes to fielding, finishing in a fourth-place tie in DRS. Nelson started three games in 2022 with outstanding results despite a dearth of run support.
2022 Stats
Gallen — 12–4, 2.54 ERA, 62 ERA-minus, 31 GS, 184 IP, 192 K (26.9%), 47 BB (6.6%), 20.3% K–BB%, 0.913 WHIP, 61% Quality Start Pct (QS%), 3 Cheap Wins (Wchp), 1 Tough Losses (Ltuf), 6 Wins Lost (WLst), 2 Losses Saved (LSv), 6 IP/GS, 4.1 Run Support per 9 (RS/9), 5.1 WAR
Kelly — 13–8, 3.37 ERA, 82 ERA-minus, 33 GS, 200 1/3 IP, 177 K (22.0%), 61 BB (7.6%), 14.4% K–BB%, 1.138 WHIP, 55% QS%, 2 Wchp, 1 Ltuf, 5 WLst, 3 LSv, 6 IP/GS, 4.6 RS/9, 3.6 WAR
Bumgarner — 7–15, 4.88 ERA, 119 ERA-minus, 30 GS, 158 2/3 IP, 112 K (16.0%), 49 BB (7.0%), 9.0% K–BB%, 1.437 WHIP, 20% QS%, 2 Wchp, 1 Ltuf, 0 WLst, 7 LSv, 5 1/3 IP/GS, 3.4 RS/9, -0.8 WAR
Davies — 2–5, 4.09 ERA, 100 ERA-minus, 27 GS, 134 1/3 IP, 102 K (17.9%), 52 BB (9.1%), 8.8% K–BB%, 1.295 WHIP, 15% QS%, 2 Wchp, 0 Ltuf, 3 WLst, 5 LSv, 5 IP/GS, 2.9 RS/9, 0.7 WAR
R. Nelson — 1–1, 1.47 ERA, 36 ERA-minus, 3 GS, 18 1/3 IP, 16 K (23.2%), 6 BB (8.7%), 14.5% K–BB%, 0.818 WHIP, 67% QS%, 0 Wchp, 0 Ltuf, 0 WLst, 0 LSv, 6 IP/GS, 1.0 RS/9, 0.8 WAR
Relief Corps
No area caused more headaches for the Diamondbacks in 2022 than relief pitching. The good news for the fans and the coaching staff is most of the culprits are gone. All the relievers from 2022 the Diamondbacks parted ways with, either during the season or this past offseason, had a combined WAR of –4.4.
As of now, there will be no set closer, instead using matchups to determine who will pitch on the back end. But manager Torey Lovullo has said he’s looking for someone to “step up” and take the role.
The right-handers on the Opening Day active roster are Kevin Ginkel, Miguel Castro, Scott McGough, Cole Sulser, and Carlos Vargas. Out of this group, Ginkel has the longest tenure with the organization, being drafted in 2016. Castro signed as a free agent after a forgettable year with the New York Yankees. McGough led the Japan Central League in saves in 2022. Sulser had a rough year with the Miami Marlins in 2022 after a dominant year with the Baltimore Orioles in 2021. Vargas will make his major league debut in his first Diamondbacks appearance, coming in a trade with the Cleveland Guardians.
Lefties and the Long Man
Andrew Chafin and Kyle Nelson are the two lefties. Chafin, a former Diamondback, has been one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball in his time since he left the team in 2020. Nelson, returning for his second season with the team, was one of the most effective middle relievers in the NL in 2022. He finished in the top ten in Scoreless Outing Percentage (ScOtg%), finishing over 10 percentage points higher than the NL average.
Long-man Drey Jameson, a righty who hits triple digits, was a finalist for the fifth rotation spot. He made it clear that he has no qualms with a relief role.
2022 Stats
Ginkel — 3.38 ERA, 82 ERA-minus, 30 GR, 24 ScOtg, 80.0 ScOtg%, 29 1/3 IP, 30 K (24.2%), 11 BB (8.9%), 15.3% K–BB%, 5-of-14 IRS (36%), 1-of-2 Saves, 6-1 GE-BE (6.0 GE/BE), 1.295 WHIP, and 0.1 WAR.
Castro (with Yankees) — 4.03 ERA, 105 ERA-minus, 34 GR, 26 ScOtg, 76.5 ScOtg%, 29 IP, 31 K (23.7%), 15 BB (11.5%), 12.2% K–BB%, 5-of-15 IRS (33%), 0-of-1 Saves, 3-1 GE-BE (3.0 GE/BE), 1.448 WHIP, and -0.3 WAR.
McGough (with Yakult Swallows in Japanese Central League) — 2.35 ERA, 70 ERA-minus, 55 GR, 53 2/3 IP, 59 K (27.4%), 13 BB (6.0%), 21.4% K–BB%, 38 Saves, and 0.969 WHIP. (Author’s Note: Scoreless Outings, Inherited Runners, Blown Saves, and Goose Egg-related statistics are unavailable.)
Sulser (with Marlins) — 5.29 ERA, 135 ERA-minus, 39 GR, 26 ScOtg, 66.7 ScOtg%, 34 IP, 38 K (25.5%), 16 BB (10.7%), 14.8% K–BB%, 3-of-17 IRS (18%), 2-of-5 Saves, 6-4 GE-BE (1.5 GE/BE), 1.618 WHIP, and -0.5 WAR.
Vargas did not play in the majors in 2022.
Chafin — 2.83 ERA, 74 ERA-minus, 64 GR, 47 ScOtg, 73.4 ScOtg%, 57 1/3 IP, 67 K (27.6%), 19 BB (7.8%), 19.8% K–BB%, 5-of-36 Inherited Runners Scored (14%), 3-of-4 Saves, 16-4 GE-BE (4.0 GE/BE), 1.169 WHIP, and 0.3 WAR.
K. Nelson — 2.19 ERA, 53 ERA-minus, 42 GR, 35 ScOtg, 83.3 ScOtg%, 37 IP, 30 K (19.9%), 14 BB (9.3%), 10.6% K–BB%, 8-of-21 Inherited Runners Scored (38%), 0-of-0 Saves, 1-2 GE-BE (0.5 GE/BE), 1.081 WHIP, and 1.0 WAR.
Jameson — 1.48 ERA, 36 ERA-minus, 0 GR, 24 1/3 IP, 24 K (24.5%), 7 BB (7.1%), 17.3% K–BB%, 1.110 WHIP, and 1.3 WAR.
Outlook
This reporter talked to several colleagues from around the country at the preseason rule meetings and the World Baseball Classic. All said they feel the Diamondbacks should contend for a playoff spot. The team has more lefty-righty balance offensively. They should be sound defensively. Their speed in the outfield will wreak havoc on opponents, both defensively and on the basepaths.
Not having to play the Dodgers and Padres as much should help this team. Having to face the AL East might hurt. It’s hard to say. It is also hard to say whether the reliever overhaul will be effective due to relievers being so volatile. But it is safe to say that it will be difficult for late-inning relief not to improve due to how much it struggled in 2022. If this team is in contention around the trade deadline, look for them to make the most effective move to improve late-inning relief: a trade. It will come from a team that’s out of it but has a dynamite closer.
At any rate, the youth and speed should make the 2023 Diamondbacks an entertaining team to watch regardless of where they finish in the standings.
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