Less than a month of regular-season play remains before the 2025 Major League Baseball season comes to a close. The San Diego Padres remain in the running for a wildcard spot and are still vying for a divisional bid. They remain 2.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are set for a strong finish.
The Padres were just swept at Petco Park by the Baltimore Orioles. This is significant as the O’s have never before swept an NL West team on the road, until now. The Padres, who are 18–27 against American League teams, faced a difficult stretch against the Birds. However, it revealed some of the glaring issues the Padres still face as they attempt to break into the postseason.
If the regular season ended today, the postseason on the National League side of things would look like this:
The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies would receive a bye. The Padres would play against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, and the New York Mets would play against the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in the NL Wildcard.
This picture is not the most favorable for the Friars, as the Padres have a 33–39 record on the road. However, the Padres still have time to get a higher seed in the wildcard. Their remaining schedule is the easiest in the majors.
That being said, before we focus on the postseason, we have to worry about the remaining games in the regular season, and San Diego has much to think about in September.
Injuries
In the first game againstinst the Orioles, Jason Adam went down while attempting to field a lightly struck ball from Gunnar Henderson. Adam almost immediately went down and called for help. He was eventually carted off the field and sent in for testing. That night, Adam was diagnosed with a quad tendon rupture and is now out for the season.
That same day, Jackson Merrill was reinstated from the IL after spending a few weeks nursing a rolled ankle. Merrill is back in the lineup, but is still suffering from a less-than-stellar sophomore season.
Michael King has spent a large portion of the season on the IL, but is due to come back to the Padres’ starting rotation any day now.
Xander Bogaerts is out for the season with a non-displaced fracture in his foot. That being said, there is some optimism that the slugger could return during the playoffs.
In the same vein, Joe Musgrove, who’s been out for the entire season after Tommy John surgery, has been lobbying to return to the Padres as a reliever during the postseason. No official plans have been made to reinstate the San Diego native for such purposes; however, the Padres would certainly benefit from another arm, especially one from such an accomplished thrower.
Offensive Woahs and Offensive Woes
Post-trade deadline, the Padres are always a marvel to watch; the team is always completely different following the aggressive trades from GM AJ Preller. Preller’s greatest hit this season comes in the form of Ramon Laureano.
Laureano in August slashed .305/.354/.581 with an OPS of .935. He homered seven times and drove in 23 runs. Woah.
To put this in perspective, the Padres’ top three hitters, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luiz Arraez and Manny Machado as a trio, combined for two homers and 29 RBI in August. Woe is San Diego.
Offense has been a struggle for the Padres this season, but this recent skid has certainly come at a poor time for the swinging friars. That being said, not everything falls on the starting lineup.
Starting Pitching
Starting pitching has been shaky to say the least for the Padres. At the trade deadline, it was decided that the team would not be moving Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez. However, they did trade two of their starting pitchers, Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert for catcher Freddy Fermin. This left a hole in their starting lineup they attempted to fill with lefty starters JP Sears and Nestor Cortes.
However, these remedies haven’t exactly panned out the way the Padres had hoped.
In Cortes’ six starts as a Padre, he has a 1–3 record with a 5.47 ERA in 26 1/3 innings. He was removed in the third inning during his most recent start against the Orioles after giving up three homers in a row. This is the third time this has happened this season alone.
Sears was acquired alongside flamethrower Mason Miller and has yet to prove himself as a Padre. He currently has an equal 1–1 record with the team with a 5.52 ERA in 14 2/3 innings pitched.
That being said, the Pads still have a superb bullpen and have continued to scrape by poor quality starts by sending out their star-studded relievers.
Miller threw the Padres’ second franchise immaculate inning in game three against the Birds despite the series loss. Adrian Morejon barely gave up his first homer in 43 appearances. Suarez leads the National League in saves. Their bullpen is reliable, but overuse is not a viable long-term option.
It’s not like the Padres don’t have options. Matt Waldron and Randy Vazquez are relatively good backups, but both are known to be a bit shaky at times. Waldron, in particular, has no postseason experience, but his unique style of play could still be an uncommon asset.
Padres Last Month of Play Before the Wildcard Series
As stated previously, the Padres have the easiest remaining schedule in the majors ahead of them. In addition, as the vast majority of them will be played at home, where they perform best.
According to ESPN, the Friars have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. In that case, it’s simply a matter of how they’ll get there and what they will do.
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