Reliever Roundup and Bullpen Bonanza — All-Star Break Team Rankings
After the All-Star Break ends, we will begin Week 15 of the season. The top two teams in our bullpen/reliever/relief corps rankings have remained the same, but there has been shuffling everywhere else. We have a new #30 for the first time since these rankings first appeared.
These rankings are not interested in what some guy in the minors did back in April before he was sent down. We want to see whose current relief roster is the toughest. That will be most useful when watching and analyzing games.
Rankings are split into the following categories. These categories encompass what a relief pitcher’s jobs are and are weighted according to importance. We don’t want to get bogged down, so we’ll keep it brief. (Author’s Note: For full details, leave a comment and I’ll be glad to get back to you.)
Clutch (45% of score) — How well they perform in late innings either while the game is tied or while holding a narrow lead.
Run Prevention (35%) — How well they keep runs off the board, including inherited runners.
Baserunner Prevention (13%) — Who has the lowest WHIP and lowest home run percentage (HR%). WHIP is 85% of the Baserunner Prevention score, and HR% is 15%.
Command (7%) — Who has the best strikeout percentage minus walk percentage (K–BB%).
The total score in each category is based on the league average. Zero points equals the league average. Positive scores are better than league average; negative scores are worse. The farther their score is from zero — either positive or negative — the farther they are from the league average.
(Note: Due to weighting each score, adding the four categories together won’t equal the total score.)
For a full breakdown of each category’s score formula, click here.
Week 15/All-Star Break Team Reliever and Bullpen Rankings
(Note: We will refer to the individual relief rankings in these breakdowns. Click here to see them.)
The Elite
- Milwaukee Brewers (68.9, First in NL), No Change from Last Week
142.1 Clutch, 9.8 Run Prevention, 11.4 Baserunners, 1.2 Command
Their hitting is abysmal, yet they’re only a game back for the NL Central lead. True, it’s a weak division, but the Brewers rarely lose when protecting narrow leads late in the game. Hoby Milner is a top-ten NL middle reliever. Joel Payamps is the top setup man in the league, with Elvis Peguero also in the top ten. And Devin Williams is among the best closers.
The Brewers keep runs off the board, with an NL-leading 80.0% scoreless percentage. They’re second best in the NL when it comes to keeping inherited runners from scoring (24.0%). Their ERA-minus is a mind-boggling 58, best in the majors. WHIP? Lowest in the NL, at 1.101. They are eighth in K–BB%, so that could improve, but it clearly isn’t hurting them very much.
Better Take an Early Lead…
- Pittsburgh Pirates (25.5, Second in NL), No Change from Last Week
54.1 Clutch, 2.5 Run Prevention, 2.4 Baserunners, -1.2 Command
The second-best relief corps in the majors also comes from the NL Central — the Pittsburgh Pirates. David Bednar is the top NL closer according to the individual relief rankings. Colin Holderman is a top-ten setup man. The fact that the Diamondbacks scored off both of them in their dramatic come-from-behind victory Saturday was nothing short of shocking. Angel Perdomo and Dauri Moreta have been outstanding in middle relief. Their strong clutch score — 54.1, second in the majors — is carrying them. Also helping is their home run rate of 1.9%, tops in the NL.
They are slightly below average in command and slightly above average in both run prevention and baserunners. Improving any of these will make a great unit even better.
- Baltimore Orioles (22.1, First in AL), ▲ +2 from Last Week
32.6 Clutch, 8.1 Run Prevention, 14.1 Baserunners, 38.6 Command
We have a new AL leader in the Baltimore Orioles. It’s not hard to see why, as All-Stars Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista are as formidable a 1–2 punch as anyone in the league right now. The biggest shock of the All-Star Game was probably Elias Diaz’s home run off Bautista, the Orioles’ closer. After all, Bautista’s home run percentage is 1.8% and his K–BB% is 39.4%. His strikeout percentage is an ungodly 50.9%. He and Cano both have a scoreless percentage in the 90s, as does middle reliever Danny Coulombe. They are second in the AL in clutch, fourth in run prevention, first in baserunners, and first in command. The Orioles could use improvement in inherited runners, as their IR% is seventh at 29.8%, only 0.4 percentage points better than league average.
- Toronto Blue Jays (20.4, Second in AL), ▲ +4 from Last Week
31.6 Clutch, 8.8 Run Prevention, 3.2 Baserunners, 38.0 Command
The Blue Jays surged four places since last week, climbing to second in the AL. Middle relievers Tim Mayza, Trevor Richards, and Nate Pearson are all among the best in the AL. So is closer Jordan Romano. However, setup man Erik Swanson is having the best season of everyone listed.
The area where the Blue Jays could use the most improvement is home run percentage. It comes in slightly higher than league average, hurting their baserunner rating.
The Very Good
- Seattle Mariners (18.5, Third in AL), ▼ -1 from Last Week
27.3 Clutch, 9.3 Run Prevention, 6.6 Baserunners, 29.7 Command
Despite improving in three of the four categories, the Mariners slid one spot in the rankings. This is because they dropped in clutch, the most heavily weighted category, due to a dip in their GE/BE ratio. Middle reliever Gabe Speier and closer Paul Sewald are in the AL Top Ten for individual reliever ratings. Setup man Justin Topa is also ranking high, coming in 11th.
- New York Yankees (14.8, Fourth in AL), ▲ +3 from Last Week
29.5 Clutch, 2.9 Run Prevention, 7.8 Baserunners, -6.3 Command
The Yankees have fired their hitting coach, but their relief corps is in good shape. Their clutch score improved by over 12 points, more than overtaking their drops in the other three categories. Setup man Wandy Peralta has had effective results, albeit in a bend-but-don’t-break manner. Closer Clay Holmes, however, has been outstanding in the first half, ranking in the top five of all AL closers.
- Cleveland Guardians (14.1, Fifth in AL), ▼ -1 from Last Week
23.3 Clutch, 9.1 Run Prevention, 5.4 Baserunners, -3.8 Command
The Guardians find themselves in the same boat as the Mariners, improving in three categories while dropping clutch, the category with the greatest weight. They are well-equipped for the stretch run, however. Closer Emmanuel Clase, setup men Enyel De Los Santos and Trevor Stephan, and Middle Reliever Eli Morgan all rank either seventh or eighth in the AL Top Ten for their roles.
- Detroit Tigers (13.6, Sixth in AL), ▲ +2 from Last Week
35.0 Clutch, -4.3 Run Prevention, -1.5 Baserunners, -6.3 Command
The Tigers have the top clutch score in the American League. However…they are below average in every other category, with the biggest blow coming in run prevention. Translation: their back end is excellent. Their middle relief is not. Expect to see closer Alex Lange and setup man Jason Foley in a lot of trade rumors over the next three weeks. (Note: We’re not saying they will be traded, simply that they’ll be talked about.)
- Philadelphia Phillies (13.4, Third in NL), ▲ +4 from Last Week
29.0 Clutch, -3.1 Run Prevention, 1.2 Baserunners, 18.0 Command
Phillies closer Craig Kimbrel, who closed out the NL victory in the All-Star Game Tuesday night, is on quite a run. He has given up a run only once in his last 17 outings, dating back to June 1. That came on June 8, giving him a current streak of 13 straight scoreless appearances. This has helped boost the Phillies, who have made a remarkable climb in the rankings over the same time span. On May 25, two weeks before this column first ran, the Phillies were 13th in the NL. They are now third. Truly remarkable. Their strengths are clutch and command. They are slightly below average in run prevention and slightly above average in baserunners. Should one or both categories improve, watch out.
- San Francisco Giants (11.4, Fourth in NL), ▼ -3 from Last Week
25.6 Clutch, -2.8 Run Prevention, 2.6 Baserunners, 7.5 Command
The Giants have fallen in clutch and command but improved in run prevention and baserunners. Their main horses are the Rogers twins, middle reliever Taylor and setup man Tyler, as well as closer Camilo Doval. Doval, of note, earned the win Tuesday night in the All-Star Game. For the second half, the Giants need to improve their run prevention. In scoreless outing percentage, they are third from the bottom in the NL.
Slightly above Average
- Miami Marlins (10.7, Fifth in NL), ▼ -8 from Last Week
20.3 Clutch, 0.0 Run Prevention, 4.8 Baserunners, 13.7 Command
Tough week for the Marlins, causing them to plummet from third to eleventh. What hurt them were drops in the two categories with the heaviest weights, clutch and run prevention. Seventh-inning setup man Dylan Floro gave up runs in both his appearances of the week. Closer A.J. Puk had four appearances, putting up goose eggs in the first and last and broken eggs in the second and third. Despite the setbacks, Floro and Puk are both in the NL top-ten for their respective roles. If the Marlins improve their run prevention score in the coming week, look for them to rebound. They have too many talented relievers to stay down for long.
- Boston Red Sox (10.5, Seventh in AL), ▲ +3 from Last Week
23.5 Clutch, 0.4 Run Prevention, 1.1 Baserunners, -5.1 Command
The Red Sox improved greatly in clutch over the last week, sending them up the overall leaderboard while remaining seventh in the AL. But they are average in run prevention and baserunners. In command, they are below average. The stud of this group is setup man Chris Martin, whose GE/BE ratio is 6.5 (ninth in the AL). In addition, his scoreless outing percentage (86.7%) and WHIP (0.977) are toward the top. The rest of the group needs to improve their run prevention and baserunner scores to get this group higher up the charts.
- Atlanta Braves (8.9, Sixth in NL), ▼ -1 from Last Week
17.2 Clutch, -1.2 Run Prevention, 4.6 Baserunners, 14.3 Command
The Braves are hanging in there, eagerly anticipating the return of Jesse Chavez, the top middle reliever in the NL. Closer Raisel Iglesias is also in the NL top five for his role. Everyone else has been rather pedestrian. But it hasn’t hurt their overall record, obviously, since they’ve won 27 of their last 32 games.
- Cincinnati Reds (7.9, Seventh in NL), ▼ -3 from Last Week
15.9 Clutch, 3.2 Run Prevention, 1.4 Baserunners, -8.1 Command
The Reds lead the NL Central and have won nine of their past twelve. They improved their overall score as well as their scores in every category except command. But they fell three spots due to other teams leapfrogging them. Closer Alexis Diaz and setup man Lucas Sims pack a tremendous 1–2 punch, ranking second and third in the NL for their respective roles. The rest of the ‘pen has been at or below average. If any of the middle relievers can get in a groove, look out.
The Average
- Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5, Eighth in NL), ▼ -1 from Last Week
5.4 Clutch, -0.5 Run Prevention, -6.2 Baserunners, 0.6 Command
The Dodgers lack a true closer, using the setup trio of Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, and Evan Phillips over the final three innings in whichever matchups are most favorable. The rest of the ‘pen is nothing to write home about. Look for the Dodgers to try to add a closer at the deadline. They could also use a dependable middle reliever, as their current ones are having mediocre seasons at best.
- New York Mets (1.0, Ninth in NL), ▲ +2 from Last Week
-2.6 Clutch, 5.6 Run Prevention, 0.0 Baserunners, 3.1 Command
Closer David Robertson is sixth in the NL. Setup man Brooks Raley is fourth. No one else in the relief corps is in the top 20, and only two others even have a positive score. Of course, this is only one of several problems the Mets have. For even with the top-six performances of Robertson and Raley, the Mets’ overall score is 1.0. Regardless, they’ve inched up two spots.
The Below Average
- Tampa Bay Rays (-3.4, Eighth in AL), ▲ +6 from Last Week
-6.6 Clutch, 6.3 Run Prevention, -4.4 Baserunners, -29.1 Command
The Rays, whose victory Sunday snapped a seven-game losing streak, somehow climbed six spots in the past week. Prior to this week, their overall score had been no higher than -4.1. It had dropped as low as -10.9. Closer Pete Fairbanks is starting to get back in his groove. Setup man Jason Adam is 10th at his position in the AL. Two middle relievers — Jake Diekman and Kevin Kelly — are in the AL top eight. While they still have a long way to go before getting all their scores above zero, they are moving in the right direction, with last week being a significant step upward.
- Houston Astros (-4.9, Ninth in AL), ▲ +4 from Last Week
-13.3 Clutch, 0.4 Run Prevention, -0.5 Baserunners, 14.6 Command
Setup man Hector Neris is in the AL Top Ten. So is middle reliever Phil Maton. Closer Ryan Pressly has recovered well from a rough start to the season, now sitting 11th among AL closers. But like the other teams around them on the leaderboard, the rest of the corps has been somewhere between “mediocre” and “struggling.” This is another team that needs to make a trade or two to get set up for the stretch run.
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-5.4, 10th in NL), ▼ -2 from Last Week
-14.2 Clutch, 1.6 Run Prevention, 0.4 Baserunners, 5.6 Command
The Diamondbacks’ low clutch score, one that continues falling, is an anvil to their overall score. They have two middle relievers in the NL Top Ten, Kevin Ginkel and Kyle Nelson. Once Austin Adams gets enough appearances to be eligible — he needs three more — he’ll take over the top spot so long as he keeps performing at the same level.
As far as the back end goes, they have a trio of setup men — Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro, and Scott McGough — and no closer. To fill in the closer hole, the three setup men are matched up with whichever third of the opposing lineup is likely to give them the most success. Then the seventh through ninth innings play out based on which third of the opposing lineup is due up. This tends to work well in the seventh and eighth innings, but the ninth has been hit-or-miss recently. If any team needs to trade for a closer, this is it. They certainly need one for the second half if they want to stay in contention.
Lots of Work to Do
- Chicago White Sox (-6.1, 10th in AL), ▼ -1 from Last Week
-7.0 Clutch, -6.9 Run Prevention, -2.7 Baserunners, -2.5 Command
The White Sox have dropped to their lowest score and lowest ranking since this column began. In addition, they have declined in all four categories. The scariest part? Closer Kendall Graveman is in the AL Top Ten, yet the team still has this low of an overall score. Hard times on the Southside, indeed.
- Minnesota Twins (-6.7, 11th in AL), No Change from Last Week
-12.7 Clutch, -1.5 Run Prevention, -0.1 Baserunners, -6.3 Command
Their clutch improved slightly, but it wasn’t enough to offset the declines in the other three categories. Even though their standing in the AL and overall stayed the same, their overall score declined. All this despite Jhoan Duran ranking seventh overall among AL closers. Middle reliever Brock Stewart, whose injury instantly knocked the Twins down seven spots on the leaderboard, should return within the next few days. It won’t come a moment too soon, as he is atop the AL leaderboard for middle relievers.
- Los Angeles Angels (-7.6, 12th in AL), ▼ -6 from Last Week
-6.6 Clutch, -8.1 Run Prevention, -6.3 Baserunners, -13.3 Command
This has been a disastrous month for the seemingly snakebit Angels. They’ve won once since June 27. Since their victory on Father’s Day, June 18, they’ve lost 13 of 17. Granted, a rash of injuries to key players is the main culprit, but the ‘pen has not helped matters. Carlos Estevez, ranked sixth in the AL, has remained as dependable a closer as they come, but he can’t do it alone. The imminent return of Matt Moore, the third-ranked setup man in the AL, will be a (bad pun alert) welcome relief to the unit. But they still need to improve in every category, as they are below league average in all cases.
- Chicago Cubs (-9.9, 11th in NL), ▲ +1 from Last Week
-22.0 Clutch, -1.5 Run Prevention, 1.2 Baserunners, 5.6 Command
The Cubs are above average in baserunners and command. However, these two categories carry the lowest weight. Unfortunately for their score, they are below average in run prevention and significantly below average in the category with the highest weight — clutch. Their two best relievers — closer Adbert Alzolay and setup man Mark Leiter Jr.— still aren’t in the top ten despite their WHIPs being below 1.000. Despite all this, they still moved up a spot in the rankings the past week and have climbed six spots over the past month.
Stock Up on Tums
- Washington Nationals (-11.8, 12th in NL), ▲ +1 from Last Week
-22.0 Clutch, 0.0 Run Prevention, -4.9 Baserunners, -17.4 Command
The Nationals have climbed four spots in the past two weeks, but they are still in the bottom third of the majors. Largely responsible for this is their run prevention, which is right at league average. Setup man Kyle Finnegan is still having a nice season, ranking ninth among NL setup men. His name will assuredly pop up in trade rumors between now and the trade deadline. So will closer Hunter Harvey, who took the closer job from Finnegan about a month ago.
- Colorado Rockies (-12.4, 13th in NL), ▲ +1 from Last Week
-16.6 Clutch, -4.9 Run Prevention, -10.7 Baserunners, -26.1 Command
The Rockies dipped slightly in clutch and improved slightly in everything else. This includes their overall score, which moved them up one spot on the leaderboard. For clutch, their ratio is slightly lower than the league average, but having the lowest amount of goose eggs in the league is a millstone. They have the second lowest scoreless outing percentage in the NL. In addition, they have the highest WHIP in the NL and the lowest K–BB%. Closer Justin Lawrence, one of the top ten closers in the NL, is having the best season of the bunch.
- Texas Rangers (-12.5, 13th in AL), ▼ -6 from Last Week
-38.1 Clutch, 4.0 Run Prevention, 13.7 Baserunners, 21.5 Command
The Rangers — who have dropped eight of eleven — had a nightmare of a week, causing their clutch score and overall score to take a nosedive. They have good or great scores in run prevention, baserunners, and command. But since nobody other than new setup man Aroldis Chapman and closer Will Smith can be trusted in clutch situations, their overall score throws them in the bottom five. For the Rangers to have any chance in the postseason, this must improve.
Pray for a Blowout Win
- San Diego Padres (-14.0, 14th in NL), No Change from Last Week
-26.6 Clutch, -3.2 Run Prevention, -0.6 Baserunners, -12.4 Command
Closer Josh Hader is having another stellar year. Middle reliever Steven Wilson is also having a nice season. Tom Cosgrove is pitching well as long as it’s not late and close. Unless Hader is on the mound, the Padres cannot be trusted late in tie games or with a narrow lead. Expect Hader — an impending free agent — to be shipped off at the deadline. Their huge loss of TV revenue will prevent them from affording to re-sign him. Once he’s gone, the Padres may fall to the bottom of the NL in reliever ratings.
- St Louis Cardinals (-18.0, 15th in NL), No Change from Last Week
-30.9 Clutch, -7.0 Run Prevention, -9.2 Baserunners, -6.2 Command
Wait…never mind. The Cardinals relief corps — despite the strong seasons from closer Ryan Helsley and setup man Giovanny Gallegos — is safely at the bottom of the NL in both clutch and run prevention. When Helsley and Gallegos are traded — an inevitability, barring strange circumstances — they’ll fall to the bottom in baserunners, too. This has been a nightmare season in St. Louis.
- Oakland Athletics (-22.3, 14th in AL), ▲ +1 from Last Week
-29.1 Clutch, -14.9 Run Prevention, -12.5 Baserunners, -33.5 Command
Hey, there ya go! They’ve moved up one spot. Still a long way to go before being positive in any category, but their scores are less negative than they were last week.
- Kansas City Royals (-29.8, 15th in AL), ▼ -1 from Last Week
-45.6 Clutch, -16.7 Run Prevention, -20.6 Baserunners, -11.4 Command
They traded setup man Aroldis Chapman, and their scores fell “like a lead balloon,” in the words of the late Tom Seaver. Closer Scott Barlow might also be traded, although his numbers to this point aren’t exactly stellar. At any rate, if the Royals are holding a late, narrow lead, their opponents are not at all out of it.
Full Score Explanation
For clutch, we will use both the Goose Egg total (33%) and the ratio of Goose Eggs to Broken Eggs (67%) due to the major flaws in Saves and Holds. Full details about Goose Eggs are here. Otherwise, here’s the elevator speech.
A Goose Egg is like a save, except more restrictive. Here are the main points…
- It’s done inning by inning, starting in the seventh.
- Maximum of a two-run lead, not three, but it also includes tie games. Like the save, exceptions are made if the tying run is on base or at bat. (Not on deck, however.)
- Run Breakdown:
- No run of any kind — earned, unearned, or inherited — scores, it’s a goose egg (GE).
- Earned run charged to the pitcher, it’s a broken egg (BE).
- Any other run scores, it’s neither.
- Earned run scores in an inning where he closes out the victory, it’s also neither.
- Starts the inning and gives up no runs, but doesn’t finish the inning, it’s also neither.
- He must finish the inning while recording the following number of outs:
- No one on when he starts the inning — all three;
- One on — at least two;
- Two or three on — at least one.
- Any time it’s “neither,” it’s called a “Meh,” as in “nothing special.” They’re like a stalemate in chess and count as nothing, so we really don’t talk about them.
- Most important is the ratio of GE to BE (GE/BE). The historical average, dating to 1921, is 3.0, or 3-to-1.
Click here for the full database of these stats.
For run prevention, we will use a mixture of the Scoreless Outing Percentage (Earned Runs only), Inherited Runners Scored Percentage (IS%), and ERA-minus. ScOtg% is 75% of the score, IS% is 15%, and ERA-minus is 10%.
Also See:
Week 14 Rankings, Week 13 Rankings, Week 12 Rankings, Week 11 Rankings, Week 15 Individual Rankings
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